982
FXUS64 KLZK 162321
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
621 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern Arkansas,
with potential for severe wind forecast tonight through early
Saturday morning. By early Saturday morning, the MCS will move
into central portions of the state, where the system is expected
to begin dissipating. Some isolated showers and storms will be
possible across central and southern portions of the state through
early tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Latest satellite, surface, and radar data indicate a few
convective cells between Benton and Arkadelphia, moving slowly to
the southeast. This weakly forced activity has formed in an fairly
unstable region, with MLCape values of 3500j/kg indicated. In the
near term, need to also closely monitor the vicinity of a diffuse
boundary, along the I=40 corridor, for additional development.

A number of different CAM outputs have indicated that convection
will initiate late tonight across portions of the southwest
Missouri, with the activity organizing into a MCS and moving to
the south and southeast. The consensus of these solutions has
supported a higher forecast confidence regarding this convective
potential.

Hot conditions will continue through the rest of this period.
Duration and location of overnight convective activity will
contribute a factor with regard to heat stress, potentially
providing cloud cover to reduce solar insolation, and some
overturning to cool the lower layers of the atmospheric column

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

To begin the period, high pressure will begin to take control of the
weather pattern...although with cooler and drier air over the state.
The high pressure system that brought dangerously hot conditions
over the state the past week will begin to retreat towards the
west as clockwise flow around the high pressure gives way to
northerly flow aloft. This will result in lower humidity values
across the region.

As mentioned above, "cooler" temperatures are expected to move into
the state. With that said, it will still be hot with forecast high
temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures are expected
to drop into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  94  72  90 /  60  50  20  10
Camden AR         77 100  77  99 /  30  10  10  20
Harrison AR       71  93  69  88 /  50  50  20  10
Hot Springs AR    77 102  77  99 /  30  40  10  10
Little Rock   AR  79  99  78  97 /  40  40  20  10
Monticello AR     79 100  78  98 /  40  10  20  10
Mount Ida AR      74 101  75  99 /  40  30  10  20
Mountain Home AR  72  92  70  88 /  50  50  20  10
Newport AR        75  95  72  91 /  60  50  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     78  99  76  96 /  30  30  20  10
Russellville AR   75  98  75  96 /  60  40  10  10
Searcy AR         75  96  74  93 /  60  40  20  20
Stuttgart AR      78  97  75  94 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>006-103-112-
113-203-212-213-221>223-313.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-
008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ007-008-016-
017-024-025-033-034-123-223.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ031-
032-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-221-
222-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...71