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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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982 FXUS64 KLZK 162321 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern Arkansas, with potential for severe wind forecast tonight through early Saturday morning. By early Saturday morning, the MCS will move into central portions of the state, where the system is expected to begin dissipating. Some isolated showers and storms will be possible across central and southern portions of the state through early tomorrow afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Latest satellite, surface, and radar data indicate a few convective cells between Benton and Arkadelphia, moving slowly to the southeast. This weakly forced activity has formed in an fairly unstable region, with MLCape values of 3500j/kg indicated. In the near term, need to also closely monitor the vicinity of a diffuse boundary, along the I=40 corridor, for additional development. A number of different CAM outputs have indicated that convection will initiate late tonight across portions of the southwest Missouri, with the activity organizing into a MCS and moving to the south and southeast. The consensus of these solutions has supported a higher forecast confidence regarding this convective potential. Hot conditions will continue through the rest of this period. Duration and location of overnight convective activity will contribute a factor with regard to heat stress, potentially providing cloud cover to reduce solar insolation, and some overturning to cool the lower layers of the atmospheric column && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 To begin the period, high pressure will begin to take control of the weather pattern...although with cooler and drier air over the state. The high pressure system that brought dangerously hot conditions over the state the past week will begin to retreat towards the west as clockwise flow around the high pressure gives way to northerly flow aloft. This will result in lower humidity values across the region. As mentioned above, "cooler" temperatures are expected to move into the state. With that said, it will still be hot with forecast high temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 50s to upper 60s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 75 94 72 90 / 60 50 20 10 Camden AR 77 100 77 99 / 30 10 10 20 Harrison AR 71 93 69 88 / 50 50 20 10 Hot Springs AR 77 102 77 99 / 30 40 10 10 Little Rock AR 79 99 78 97 / 40 40 20 10 Monticello AR 79 100 78 98 / 40 10 20 10 Mount Ida AR 74 101 75 99 / 40 30 10 20 Mountain Home AR 72 92 70 88 / 50 50 20 10 Newport AR 75 95 72 91 / 60 50 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 78 99 76 96 / 30 30 20 10 Russellville AR 75 98 75 96 / 60 40 10 10 Searcy AR 75 96 74 93 / 60 40 20 20 Stuttgart AR 78 97 75 94 / 40 30 20 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>006-103-112- 113-203-212-213-221>223-313. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007- 008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123- 130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ007-008-016- 017-024-025-033-034-123-223. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ031- 032-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-221- 222-230-237-238-240-241-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...71