572
FXUS64 KLZK 090510
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The initial wave of convection, from now Tropical Storm Beryl, conts
to lift northward acrs the FA this aftn, with another area of
rainfall concentrated over southwest AR. As expected, we are seeing
quite the range of temps over the FA. Mid aftn readings ranged fm
the 70s in the rain-cooled locations, to the 80s elsewhere.

No significant changes were made to the going fcst. The projected
track of Beryl`s remnants have sped up a bit per the latest NHC
fcst, but the overall track thru AR rmns unchanged, generally
along the I-30/US Highway 67/167 corridor. Heavy rainfall/flash
flooding potential, along with the potential for a few tornadoes,
are the main threats tonight into Tue.

Showers and a scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage tngt
as the center of Beryl moves into southwest AR later tngt. Between
now and then, this timeframe is the most concerning for tornado
formation over southwest AR as the lower lvl wind fields wl rmn
favorable for tornadic development.

The system is expected to be centered around the MO Bootheel by
early Tue evening, with rain chances quickly diminishing fm the
south and west. Drier conds wl return for Wed, with highs returning
to near normal lvls. Sfc dewpoints wl be in the 60s, so aftn heat
indices wl stay below advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The prevailing upper level trof and the hurricane remnants have been
a nice break in the typical hot and excessively humid weather
normally expected in the month of July. For better or worse, weather
conditions during the extended term will be reverting back to more
typical July conditions.

The term will begin with surface high pressure building into the
area in the wake of a cool front. Above the surface, an upper level
trof of low pressure will be gradually starting to propagate
eastward.

Over time the surface high will slide to the east, allowing a return
flow of moist Gulf air across the region, while an upper level ridge
of high pressure builds across the area from the west.

The overall trend for the forecast period will be warming
temperatures and increasing moisture levels, with little in the way
of precipitation. I suspect that by Monday of next week, some areas
will see heat index values climb at or above the 105 degree
level...requiring the issuance of head advisory products.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Poor conditions will continue overnight across the area as the
remnants of Beryl move through Arkansas. Showers and
thunderstorms are currently over much of the state with the
strongest storms central and east. Winds will be gusty at times.
The center of Beryl should track near the I-30/Highway 67/167
corridor. VFR conditions will become IFR at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  88  67  91 /  20  10   0  10
Camden AR         65  91  67  94 /  10  10   0   0
Harrison AR       62  86  64  88 /  10   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    66  90  68  93 /  10  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  68  89  71  93 /  10  10   0   0
Monticello AR     67  90  70  93 /  10  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      64  89  66  92 /  10  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  62  86  65  88 /  10   0   0  10
Newport AR        65  87  68  90 /  30  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     67  88  69  92 /  10  10   0   0
Russellville AR   65  89  68  92 /  10  10   0   0
Searcy AR         65  88  67  92 /  20  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      67  86  70  89 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-
031>033-039-042>044-052>054-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-
141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...51