886
FXUS64 KLZK 121930
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Warm front will lift northward through Arkansas the next couple
of days. North of the front, another round of showers and
thunderstorms is in the forecast over the northwest/north central
counties tonight/Tuesday morning, and over the northeast counties
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

South of the front, a ridge of high pressure will begin building
into the region from the Gulf Coast and central/southern Plains.
Hot and humid conditions will be noted over central and southern
Arkansas, with high temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday in the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees. Afternoon heat index values will max out
between 100 and 110 degrees.

A Heat Advisory has been posted in central/southern sections of
the state on Tuesday. Heat headlines will likely be needed again
on Wednesday.

By the end of the period, the ridge will be over Arkansas. The
heat will continue into the long term, and rain chances will
become negligible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

H500 ridging is expected to dominate the pattern through much of the
long term portion of the forecast, as it should extend from the SW US
eastward toward the Gulf Coast. With sfc ridging expected across the
SE through much of the period, S-SW low level flow will keep a
steady stream of moist air in place across the state. This
combination will lead to a period of above normal temperatures as
well as dangerous heat indices. Heat headlines are likely nearly
every day for at least some parts of the state.

While the forecast looks largely dry in nature, a slow moving mid-
level low will work its way around the periphery of the ridge toward
the eastern US. This will provide a persistent H500 NW flow setup
across the  middle of the country and Arkansas will be on the edge
of this. This could provide occasional chances for showers and
storms, especially across northern and eastern parts of the state
where remnant MCSs could pass through the mean flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Scattered showers in west central/southwest Arkansas will disspate
this afternoon. Other than some mid/high clouds, mainly VFR conditions
are expected, with brief MVFR conditions/low clouds in parts of the
Ozark Mountains. VFR conditions will hold at most locations overnight
into Tuesday morning, with showers/isolated thunderstorms redeveloping
north of Little Rock. There may be some patchy fog/low clouds/MVFR
conditions to start Tuesday across the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  90  71  88 /  10  30  20  20
Camden AR         71  98  75  99 /   0  10  10  10
Harrison AR       68  88  70  93 /  20  40  10  10
Hot Springs AR    71  98  75 100 /   0  10  10  10
Little Rock   AR  73  97  77  97 /   0  20  10  10
Monticello AR     73  97  77  99 /   0  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR      68  98  72 100 /   0  20  10  10
Mountain Home AR  68  86  70  88 /  10  40  30  20
Newport AR        69  90  72  89 /   0  30  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     71  96  75  97 /   0  10  10  10
Russellville AR   70  95  74  98 /  10  20  10  10
Searcy AR         69  93  72  92 /   0  20  10  20
Stuttgart AR      71  93  75  94 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ031-032-039-
042>044-052>056-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...46