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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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886 FXUS64 KLZK 121930 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Warm front will lift northward through Arkansas the next couple of days. North of the front, another round of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast over the northwest/north central counties tonight/Tuesday morning, and over the northeast counties Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. South of the front, a ridge of high pressure will begin building into the region from the Gulf Coast and central/southern Plains. Hot and humid conditions will be noted over central and southern Arkansas, with high temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Afternoon heat index values will max out between 100 and 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been posted in central/southern sections of the state on Tuesday. Heat headlines will likely be needed again on Wednesday. By the end of the period, the ridge will be over Arkansas. The heat will continue into the long term, and rain chances will become negligible. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 H500 ridging is expected to dominate the pattern through much of the long term portion of the forecast, as it should extend from the SW US eastward toward the Gulf Coast. With sfc ridging expected across the SE through much of the period, S-SW low level flow will keep a steady stream of moist air in place across the state. This combination will lead to a period of above normal temperatures as well as dangerous heat indices. Heat headlines are likely nearly every day for at least some parts of the state. While the forecast looks largely dry in nature, a slow moving mid- level low will work its way around the periphery of the ridge toward the eastern US. This will provide a persistent H500 NW flow setup across the middle of the country and Arkansas will be on the edge of this. This could provide occasional chances for showers and storms, especially across northern and eastern parts of the state where remnant MCSs could pass through the mean flow. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Scattered showers in west central/southwest Arkansas will disspate this afternoon. Other than some mid/high clouds, mainly VFR conditions are expected, with brief MVFR conditions/low clouds in parts of the Ozark Mountains. VFR conditions will hold at most locations overnight into Tuesday morning, with showers/isolated thunderstorms redeveloping north of Little Rock. There may be some patchy fog/low clouds/MVFR conditions to start Tuesday across the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 68 90 71 88 / 10 30 20 20 Camden AR 71 98 75 99 / 0 10 10 10 Harrison AR 68 88 70 93 / 20 40 10 10 Hot Springs AR 71 98 75 100 / 0 10 10 10 Little Rock AR 73 97 77 97 / 0 20 10 10 Monticello AR 73 97 77 99 / 0 10 10 10 Mount Ida AR 68 98 72 100 / 0 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 68 86 70 88 / 10 40 30 20 Newport AR 69 90 72 89 / 0 30 20 20 Pine Bluff AR 71 96 75 97 / 0 10 10 10 Russellville AR 70 95 74 98 / 10 20 10 10 Searcy AR 69 93 72 92 / 0 20 10 20 Stuttgart AR 71 93 75 94 / 0 10 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ031-032-039- 042>044-052>056-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238- 240-241-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...46