Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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248 FXUS64 KLZK 131130 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 630 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Quiet weather conditions were noted across AR this morning. Temperatures were starting out in the lower to mid 70s. Dew point temperatures have come up a bit compared to the previous several days with predawn readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Synoptically, an upper ridge will build into the MS Valley from the Srn Plains during the period. This will allow temperatures to sore on light S/SWrly winds. Highs today should top out in the mid to upper 90s. When combining hot temperatures with higher dew points, a resultant heat advisory will go into effect across the SW half of AR today for heat index values expected to range from 105 to 110 degrees. Similar conditions will be noted on Wednesday, with slightly warmer air temperatures approaching the century mark in places. A couple upper level impulses are expected to traverse around the periphery of the aforementioned ridge, bringing PoP chances to N and NE AR during the period. Heavy rain could fall over far NE AR Wednesday morning but given current uncertainty, QPF amounts are limited to 1-2" over far NE sections of the state. Some guidance suggest the heaviest swath of rainfall could remain just N/NE of the state. Our summer-like weather pattern is expected to continue into the long term. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 An upper ridge will be over the southern U.S. to begin the long term period with an upper trough over the east coast. An upper trough enters the upper Midwest Thursday and moves east through the weekend. An upper ridge builds over the west Friday and Saturday and moves east Sunday and Monday. Arkansas will be in the warm sector behind the warm front Thursday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the north Thursday and more widespread Friday though chances remain low. Rain chances remain low Saturday through Monday with the upper ridge to the west of Arkansas. Northwest flow over the state could bring better chances of rain than anticipated in the latter part of the extended forecast. Above normal temperatures are expected through the period. Dew points will remain in the lower to mid 70s. High humidity combined with the heat will lead to some heat headlines through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conds are expected to prevail today and tonight. Scattered SHRA/TSRA were mentioned at KHRO and KBPK associated with an ongoing MCS over Srn KS. This activity is anticipated to decrease in coverage with time, but bring a few hr window of PoPs to the aforementioned sites. Otherwise, no significant weather is expected at Cntrl/Srn terminals. Winds will be light, Srly component at less than 10 kts today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 91 72 90 74 / 20 30 30 10 Camden AR 97 76 99 76 / 10 10 10 0 Harrison AR 89 70 93 73 / 40 20 20 0 Hot Springs AR 98 76 100 76 / 10 10 10 0 Little Rock AR 97 77 96 78 / 10 10 20 0 Monticello AR 97 77 98 78 / 0 10 20 0 Mount Ida AR 97 74 99 74 / 10 10 10 0 Mountain Home AR 88 72 90 73 / 40 30 30 10 Newport AR 91 72 90 73 / 10 30 30 0 Pine Bluff AR 96 76 96 76 / 0 10 20 0 Russellville AR 95 74 97 75 / 20 10 10 0 Searcy AR 94 72 93 74 / 10 20 30 0 Stuttgart AR 94 75 93 76 / 0 10 20 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-042>044-052>056-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140- 141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...70