670
FXUS64 KLZK 131743
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1243 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Quiet weather conditions were noted across AR this morning.
Temperatures were starting out in the lower to mid 70s. Dew point
temperatures have come up a bit compared to the previous several
days with predawn readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Synoptically, an upper ridge will build into the MS Valley from the
Srn Plains during the period. This will allow temperatures to
sore on light S/SWrly winds. Highs today should top out in the mid
to upper 90s. When combining hot temperatures with higher dew
points, a resultant heat advisory will go into effect across the
SW half of AR today for heat index values expected to range
from 105 to 110 degrees. Similar conditions will be noted on
Wednesday, with slightly warmer air temperatures approaching the
century mark in places.

A couple upper level impulses are expected to traverse around the
periphery of the aforementioned ridge, bringing PoP chances to N and
NE AR during the period. Heavy rain could fall over far NE AR
Wednesday morning but given current uncertainty, QPF amounts are
limited to 1-2" over far NE sections of the state. Some guidance
suggest the heaviest swath of rainfall could remain just N/NE of
the state. Our summer-like weather pattern is expected to
continue into the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

An upper ridge will be over the southern U.S. to begin the
long term period with an upper trough over the east coast. An upper
trough enters the upper Midwest Thursday and moves east through the
weekend. An upper ridge builds over the west Friday and Saturday and
moves east Sunday and Monday.

Arkansas will be in the warm sector behind the warm front Thursday.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the north Thursday
and more widespread Friday though chances remain low. Rain chances
remain low Saturday through Monday with the upper ridge to the west
of Arkansas. Northwest flow over the state could bring better
chances of rain than anticipated in the latter part of the extended
forecast.

Above normal temperatures are expected through the period. Dew
points will remain in the lower to mid 70s. High humidity combined
with the heat will lead to some heat headlines through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Current line of convection will move east across north central and
northeast sections of the forecast area through 20z.

Several recent runs of CAM output indicate a similar situation to
unfold early Wednesday. Forecasts account for this convective
development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     91  72  90  74 /  20  30  30  10
Camden AR         97  75  98  76 /  10   0  10   0
Harrison AR       89  70  91  73 /  40  20  20   0
Hot Springs AR    98  75  98  76 /  10  10  10   0
Little Rock   AR  97  77  95  78 /  10  10  20   0
Monticello AR     97  77  97  78 /  10   0  20   0
Mount Ida AR      97  73  98  74 /  10   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  88  71  90  73 /  40  40  30  10
Newport AR        91  72  91  73 /  10  30  30   0
Pine Bluff AR     96  76  96  76 /   0  10  20   0
Russellville AR   95  74  96  75 /  20  10  10   0
Searcy AR         94  73  93  74 /  10  20  30   0
Stuttgart AR      94  75  93  76 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-
042>044-052>056-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...55