669
FXUS64 KLZK 132307
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
607 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Latest observations indicate the remaining cells that combined to
form a linear MCS are now moving into northeast portions of the
forecast area. This activity will move east of the CWA by 2130z.

CAM guidance suggests a similar MCS type event will form overnight,
but will start slightly east of where the activity of last night
formed.  Northeast sections of the forecast area will have the
highest probability of experiencing this convection.

Conditions promoting high heat stress will continue through this
period. Appropriate headlines are in effect.  Additional headlines
may be required for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

H500 ridging is expected to dominate the pattern through much of the
long term portion of the forecast, as it should extend from the SW US
eastward toward the Gulf Coast. With sfc ridging expected across the
SE through much of the period, S-SW low level flow will keep a
steady stream of moist air in place across the state. This
combination will lead to a period of above normal temperatures as
well as dangerous heat indices. Heat headlines are likely nearly
every day for at least some parts of the state.

While the forecast looks largely dry in nature, a slow moving mid-
level low will work its way around the periphery of the ridge toward
the eastern US. As ridging across the SW builds north, this will
provide a persistent H500 NW flow setup across the middle of the
country. Arkansas will be on the edge of this setup which will lead
to occasional chances for showers and storms, especially across
northern and eastern parts of the state where remnant MCSs could
pass through the mean flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Expect VFR flight category between Tuesday evening and Wednesday
evening at all terminals with exception to the northern sites of
KHRO and KBPK which will see lowering CIGS to IFR flight category
early Wednesday morning. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms via
another complex exiting Missouri will likely impact the terminals of
KHRO and KBPK, with the possibility of some shower and thunderstorm
activity making it into the central site of KLIT around sunrise on
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  90  73  95 /  30  30   0  10
Camden AR         74  98  75  99 /   0  10   0  10
Harrison AR       70  91  72  94 /  20  20   0  10
Hot Springs AR    74  97  75 100 /  10  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  76  95  78  99 /  10  20   0   0
Monticello AR     76  97  78  99 /  10  20  10  10
Mount Ida AR      73  98  73  99 /   0  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  71  90  72  94 /  40  40  10  10
Newport AR        73  91  72  96 /  30  40   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     75  96  75  99 /  10  20   0  10
Russellville AR   74  96  74  99 /  10  10   0   0
Searcy AR         73  93  74  97 /  20  30   0  10
Stuttgart AR      74  93  75  97 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-
042>044-052>056-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ031-032-039-
042>044-052>056-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...74