603
FXUS64 KLZK 171938
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
238 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear conditions
across the northern half of the forecast area, with scattered to
broken mid level clouds across the southern half. Previous
convection/MCS activity has overturned the atmospheric column, most
noticeably across western sections.

Sunday should be the last day of the current heat headline streak,
as a cold front will move south and approach the state on Sunday.
The feature will be associated with an amplifying flow pattern
across the U.S., allowing for a more developed northwest flow across
the mid south. Mid level disturbances in this flow should be able to
promote at least one thunderstorm complex late Sunday and Monday,
which would then move south into the forecast area.

The air mass change associated with the front will be noticeable;
point forecasts at observing sites indicate below normal
temperatures at a number of locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

To begin the period, high pressure will begin to take control of the
weather pattern...although with cooler and drier air over the state.
The high pressure system that brought dangerously hot conditions
over the state the previous week will begin to retreat towards the
west as clockwise flow around the high pressure gives way to
northerly flow aloft. This will result in lower humidity values
across the region.

As mentioned above, "cooler" temperatures are expected to move into
the state. With that said, it will still be on the warm side with
forecast high temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures
are expected to drop into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Remaining showers across southeast sections will end by 1930z. Expect
areas of MVFR visibility due to fog late tonight across western
sections of the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  93  68  86 /  10  20  20  10
Camden AR         75 101  73  89 /   0  20  20  20
Harrison AR       71  92  66  84 /  10  30  30  10
Hot Springs AR    77 101  73  91 /   0  30  20  20
Little Rock   AR  78 100  74  89 /   0  20  30  20
Monticello AR     77 102  73  91 /   0  20  30  20
Mount Ida AR      74 101  72  91 /   0  30  20  20
Mountain Home AR  71  91  68  85 /  10  20  20  10
Newport AR        73  92  68  86 /  10  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     76 100  72  88 /   0  20  30  20
Russellville AR   75  97  72  88 /   0  30  30  10
Searcy AR         75  96  71  87 /  10  30  20  20
Stuttgart AR      76  97  71  87 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>056-062>064-066>068-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ024-033-
045>047-123-221>223.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ031-
032-039-042>044-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-
237-238-240-241-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ057-
065-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...55