563
FXUS64 KLZK 142327
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
627 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The upper level ridge across the area will flatten out during the
short term. Another front will begin to push down across the area on
Friday, bringing some increasing chances for rainfall across the
northern half of the state.

At the moment a quasi-stationary boundary was stretched from
southwest Arkansas into west-central Arkansas. A few thunderstorms
had developed along this line this afternoon, primarily across
southwest Arkansas, with a few in the central part of the state. I
anticipate that these should largely die off after sundown.

Heat indices tomorrow will be near or above 105 in virtually the
entire area. A few locations, primarily along and adjacent to the
Arkansas river valley will exceed heat index values of 110. For
those areas I have issued an excessive heat warning, and went with
a heat advisory for the remainder of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The mid-level pattern looks fairly locked in through the long term
portion of the forecast. H500 ridging centered between the Four
Corners and the TX/OK panhandles will expand northward and intensify
through early next week. Things will be quite different across the
eastern US where persistent troughing will be noted through the
middle of next week. This will provide a fairly steep N-NW flow
setup from west of the Great Lakes into the Mid-South.

At the sfc, a front will slide S/SW through the state before
stalling in the vicinity of SW Arkansas. Ridging will build in from
the northeast and remain centered northeast of the state. This will
help keep T/Td values under control across much of northern and
eastern Arkansas.  Unfortunately, areas along and to the south of
the front will likely experience higher T/Td values. While it will
be quite warm across much of the state, heat headlines will likely
be limited to SW AR through the end of the period.

As far as precip goes, things will probably similar to what has
occurred across the state recently. H500 NW flow will help direct
the arrival of remnant thunderstorm complexes toward parts of the
state. Some areas will likely continue to miss out on precip, but
those locations are tough to pinpoint at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Isolated thunderstorms will continue across southern terminals
this evening. VFR conditions are forecast across most sites
through the period, with lowered visibility forecast at the
northern terminals during the early morning hours tomorrow.
East/southeast wind direction this evening will shift to come out
of the west/southwest by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  97  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
Camden AR         77  99  76  99 /  10  10   0  10
Harrison AR       73  96  73  95 /  10  10  30  20
Hot Springs AR    77 101  77 102 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  78 100  79 101 /   0  10   0  20
Monticello AR     78  99  78 100 /  10  10  10  20
Mount Ida AR      75  99  76 101 /   0   0   0  20
Mountain Home AR  73  96  73  96 /  10  20  40  30
Newport AR        73  97  75  98 /   0  10  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     76  99  77 100 /   0  10   0  10
Russellville AR   75  99  76  99 /   0  10  10  20
Searcy AR         73  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  30
Stuttgart AR      76  98  77  98 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-033-034-042-045>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-
123-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-
121-122-130.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ031-
032-039-043-044-121-122-130.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ032-039-042>044-
052>056-062>069-103-112-113-123-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...71