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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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563 FXUS64 KLZK 142327 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 627 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The upper level ridge across the area will flatten out during the short term. Another front will begin to push down across the area on Friday, bringing some increasing chances for rainfall across the northern half of the state. At the moment a quasi-stationary boundary was stretched from southwest Arkansas into west-central Arkansas. A few thunderstorms had developed along this line this afternoon, primarily across southwest Arkansas, with a few in the central part of the state. I anticipate that these should largely die off after sundown. Heat indices tomorrow will be near or above 105 in virtually the entire area. A few locations, primarily along and adjacent to the Arkansas river valley will exceed heat index values of 110. For those areas I have issued an excessive heat warning, and went with a heat advisory for the remainder of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The mid-level pattern looks fairly locked in through the long term portion of the forecast. H500 ridging centered between the Four Corners and the TX/OK panhandles will expand northward and intensify through early next week. Things will be quite different across the eastern US where persistent troughing will be noted through the middle of next week. This will provide a fairly steep N-NW flow setup from west of the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. At the sfc, a front will slide S/SW through the state before stalling in the vicinity of SW Arkansas. Ridging will build in from the northeast and remain centered northeast of the state. This will help keep T/Td values under control across much of northern and eastern Arkansas. Unfortunately, areas along and to the south of the front will likely experience higher T/Td values. While it will be quite warm across much of the state, heat headlines will likely be limited to SW AR through the end of the period. As far as precip goes, things will probably similar to what has occurred across the state recently. H500 NW flow will help direct the arrival of remnant thunderstorm complexes toward parts of the state. Some areas will likely continue to miss out on precip, but those locations are tough to pinpoint at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Isolated thunderstorms will continue across southern terminals this evening. VFR conditions are forecast across most sites through the period, with lowered visibility forecast at the northern terminals during the early morning hours tomorrow. East/southeast wind direction this evening will shift to come out of the west/southwest by tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 73 97 76 97 / 10 10 20 30 Camden AR 77 99 76 99 / 10 10 0 10 Harrison AR 73 96 73 95 / 10 10 30 20 Hot Springs AR 77 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 78 100 79 101 / 0 10 0 20 Monticello AR 78 99 78 100 / 10 10 10 20 Mount Ida AR 75 99 76 101 / 0 0 0 20 Mountain Home AR 73 96 73 96 / 10 20 40 30 Newport AR 73 97 75 98 / 0 10 20 20 Pine Bluff AR 76 99 77 100 / 0 10 0 10 Russellville AR 75 99 76 99 / 0 10 10 20 Searcy AR 73 98 74 98 / 0 10 10 30 Stuttgart AR 76 98 77 98 / 0 10 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ004>008- 014>017-024-025-033-034-042-045>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113- 123-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313- 340-341. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031- 121-122-130. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ031- 032-039-043-044-121-122-130. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ032-039-042>044- 052>056-062>069-103-112-113-123-137-138-140-141-203-212-213- 221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...71