515
FXUS64 KLZK 160531
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

High pressure will continue to promote calm and dry conditions
through at least the overnight hours into early Friday morning. The
high pressure system is expected to shift back to the south and west
bring northwest flow to the state. This will return the chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. With that
said, rain chances are kept around 20 to 40 percent through the
period and widespread is not expected at this time. The best chance
of rain will be on Saturday across northern and central locations.
The chance of severe weather will be low.

High temperatures are still expected to be hot as "cooler" temps
move back into the area in the long term. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the 90s to near 100 degrees with heat index values
expected to be up to 115. Heat headlines are likely through at least
Saturday. Forecast low temperatures are expected to drop into the

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A welcomed pattern change will be noticeable as we move into next
week. With a strengthening upper ridge over the TX/OK panhandle
helping to push a cold front into the natural state. This will
provide cooler temps and more importantly, drier air. Rain chances
ahead of the front are not out of the question, but look to be
spotty at best. The more notable features will be the NW flow and
cooler temps...about 10 degrees cooler than we have in place this
week. Towards the end of the week, Southerly flow will return and
temperatures will start to rebound. However, still not as as warm as
we are currently.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VCTS, with at times -TSRA, will be possible over Nrn sites (KHRO
and KBPK) overnight as activity decreases in coverage towards
dawn. Elsewhere, VFR conds are expected to prevail through the TAF
period. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA will be possible over Cntrl and some
Srn terminals on Friday afternoon. Convection should take place
late in the afternoon into evening after daytime heating has been
achieved. Winds on Friday should be S/SW/W at around 5 to 15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     98  74  91  72 /  30  40  40  20
Camden AR        100  76 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
Harrison AR       96  71  92  68 /  20  50  40  10
Hot Springs AR   102  78 101  77 /  20  10  10  10
Little Rock   AR 101  78  98  77 /  20  10  20  10
Monticello AR    100  78  99  77 /  10  10  20  20
Mount Ida AR     101  75 100  74 /  20  10  20  10
Mountain Home AR  96  73  91  69 /  20  50  40  20
Newport AR        98  74  95  72 /  20  40  40  20
Pine Bluff AR    100  77  98  75 /  20  10  20  10
Russellville AR  102  75  98  75 /  20  20  20  10
Searcy AR         99  75  94  73 /  20  20  40  20
Stuttgart AR      99  77  97  75 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ004>006-103-112-113-203-212-213-221>223-313.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ007-008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-
062>069-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...70