706
FXUS61 KLWX 021357
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
957 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will settle off to our south and east today. High
pressure will remain in control through the weekend, before
progressing offshore early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The latest surface analysis, paired with radar/satellite data
depicts that the cold front has now pushed into southern MD
through central VA and northward into New England. Shower
activity remains along this boundary, albeit with much less
intensity than earlier this morning. Generally seeing light to
moderate rain showers in these areas, which will very slowly
push south and east for the rest of the morning.

The front should eventually clear southern Maryland by around
noon. Showers should come to an end from northwest to southeast
as the front passes through. This has mostly occurred along/west
of I-95, but we will probably hold onto showers in the east
through Noon or so.

Mostly sunny skies are expected this afternoon as much drier
air filters in aloft behind the front. The drier air should act
to limit the development of additional showers or storms this
afternoon, but a stray storm can`t be ruled out. Most locations
should remain dry through the afternoon and evening hours. High
temperatures will reach into the mid 80s for most. Dry
conditions and mostly clear skies are expected overnight, with
low temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Some patchy fog may be
possible, especially in sheltered river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper troughing will remain in place across eastern North
America tomorrow, with an embedded shortwave rotating through
the base of the trough just to our north across Upstate NY and
PA. A few showers or even a brief thunderstorm could form
tomorrow afternoon as this disturbance tracks to our north, but
dry air in the mid-levels should keep coverage of showers and
storms extremely low, if any occur at all. The chance is
actually too low at this point to mention in the online forecast
(less than 15 percent). Mostly sunny skies are expected
tomorrow, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. Dewpoints
will drop into the 60s, making it feel noticeably less humid.
Clear skies and light to calm winds are expected Thursday night.
Temperatures should drop back into the 60s, and some patchy fog
may be possible during the second half of the night.

The aforementioned upper trough will depart to our northeast off
the New England coast on Friday. Large scale subsidence behind
the departing trough will encourage high pressure to build
in at the surface. Sunny skies are expected, with high
temperatures in the mid 80s for most. Dewpoints will continue to
drop, potentially even making it into the 50s by afternoon.
This will make it feel the least humid it has in quite some time.
Clear skies are expected 4th of July evening, with temperatures
in the upper 70s and low humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper low will depart across the Canadian Maritimes as ridging
builds from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Ridging
will strengthen heading into early next week before weakening
heading into the middle of next week.

Rising temperatures and humidity are expected through the medium
range. Other than a pop up shower or thunderstorm near the
Appalachians Sunday afternoon/evening, the weekend looks dry. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return Monday and Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIGs have generally improved across the area this morning, with
all 6 TAF having improved to VFR already. However, some passing
low clouds at MRB and DCA could perhaps briefly drop conditions
to MVFR to IFR. However, that should come to an end over the
next hour or two as we start to mix out.

Thereafter, prevailing VFR conditions are expected through
Friday night. A brief shower or storm could redevelop this
afternoon, but the chance of that occurring is far to low to
mention in the TAFs at this time. Winds will be light and
variable today, and light out of the northwest on Thursday and
Friday.

VFR conditions are expected this weekend with light S/SE winds AOB
10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters through
Friday night. Winds should be light and variable today, then
light out of the north to northwest on Thursday and Friday.

South to southeast winds of less than 15 knots are expected along
with dry weather this weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...CJL/KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/KJP
MARINE...DHOF/CJL/KJP