Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
733 FXUS61 KLWX 270133 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 933 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon into the weekend. A weak front will slowly drift southward in time before stalling nearby through Friday. This system gradually lifts northward away from the area this weekend. A stronger cold front may cross the region by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak boundary bisecting the region has been and will continue to be the focal zone of heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms through late this evening. This activity should weaken and become more isolated after midnight. We can`t rule out there could be a flood warning or a severe thunderstorm warning here and there because there is a lot of instability around and moisture. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for another 45 minutes, while a Flood Watch remains in effect through midnight. Temperatures tonight will remain warm with high humidity. Through the day on Friday, the boundary will be across our region and could remain the focal point of showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe. To the north of the boundary, temperatures will be a little cooler, while south of the boundary, the heat could continue. This is so, at least until showers and thunderstorms start lighting up the sky. Most of the convection on Friday will begin and could remain in the western half of the region through mid-afternoon, before propagating eastward to the metros. Given the amount of potential instability and moisture around on Friday into Friday evening, another Flood Watch maybe warranted. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler in the north and to the north of the boundary, but nearly the same or 2 to 4 degrees cooler to the south of the boundary. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Previous discussion... Depending on how quickly instability is exhausted, some of the convection could fester into the overnight hours on Friday. With mid/upper height changes being somewhat neutral, it remains to be seen how much northward progress this boundary makes on Saturday. This system could easily linger right near the Mason-Dixon Line which would maintain a more unsettled pattern during the first half of the weekend. The expectation is for this boundary to drift northward in time on Saturday which will help usher highs back into the upper 80s to low 90s. Further, convection would be driven more heavily by instability versus along any particular frontal boundaries. But as mentioned, there is plenty of uncertainty in how this all plays out. Will see Saturday night`s lows be a tad milder than previous nights with readings in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper troughiness will maintain/support a surface trof across the area while Bermuda high keeps a continued very warm and moist air mass supporting daily chances of showers and thunderstorms Sun into Monday. A stronger trough is fcst to amplify across the Great Lks and Mid-Atlantic Tue pushing a stronger cold front through the area Tue afternoon. Timing of the frontal passage has slowed down some since yesterday supporting a greater risk of severe thunderstorms Tue afternoon. A drier air mass will follow behind the front for the middle part of next week and Fourth of July. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Previous discussion... With convection in the forecast through the remainder of the work week and into the first half of the weekend, periods of restrictions are looking likely at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions should be commonplace outside of these convective episodes. For the remainder of this evening, showers and thunderstorms will linger into the middle overnight hours. Vsbys will be reduced to MVFR to IFR. As a frontal zone drifts southward across the area, winds turn more easterly in nature on Friday. Eventually this boundary does return northward as a warm front which would bring a return to south-southwesterlies at some point on Saturday. And as mentioned, restrictions are possible given a decent chance for thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. VFR conditions at all terminals Sunday through Monday night. At times of convection, we could see brief MVFR visibility and/or ceilings. Winds will be light and variable, except higher gusts in strong thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Previous discussion... The threat of convection will make for hazardous boating conditions at times through at least Saturday. It is difficult to say which day will be the most active in terms of thunderstorm development, but the degree of continued heat and humidity should maintain a daily 30-60 percent chance of storms each afternoon/evening. As usual, frequent lightning is possible in any such storm, with the stronger cells likely requiring Special Marine Warnings. No marine hazards Sunday through Monday night. If thunderstorms move out over the waters, then Special Marine Warnings may be warranted. Winds light and variable through the period, except higher gusts in strong thunderstorms. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies will remain slightly elevated through the next several high tide cycles. This will keep water levels slightly elevated for the more sensitive tidal sites. At this point, only Annapolis is slated to reach Action stage during the next couple of astronomical high tides. && .CLIMATE... Here are some daily high temperature records on June 26, 2025: A `+` sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. ***THURSDAY, JUNE 26TH, 2025*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 101F (1952) 77F (1952)+ Washington-Dulles (IAD) 99F (2024) 72F (2023)+ Baltimore (BWI) 99F (2024)+ 80F (1952) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 104F (1998) 83F (1952) Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1943) 75F (1949) Charlottesville (CHO) 99F (1998) 78F (1952) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1998)+ 81F (1952) Hagerstown (HGR) 98F (1954)+ 75F (1952) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for DCZ001. MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ004>006-008-011- 013-014-016-503>508. VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ053>057-506-526- 527. WV...None. MARINE...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BRO NEAR TERM...KLW/CJL SHORT TERM...BRO/CJL LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...LFR/KLW/CJL MARINE...LFR/KLW/CJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL CLIMATE...CJL