Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
064 FXUS61 KLWX 080117 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 917 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front stalls south of the area today, with dry and less humid conditions in the wake of the front. Heat, humidity, and daily thunderstorm chances return for much of the upcoming week as the front lifts north across the area Monday and lingers into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Isolated showers over the eastern panhandle of West Virginia have dissipated with no precipitation expected for the rest of the night. No changes to the forecast package with the exception of patchy fog being added. Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to 70s for most with those in the metro areas are expected to stay in the low 80s. Previous Discussion Follows: Today will be the quietest in what feels like a while, with only isolated PoPs restricted to southern Maryland and neighboring waters. Some weak showers have developed over east central Virginia (south of our area) and moved over the Chesapeake Bay. Any showers that do move over the waters and southern Maryland will be similar to these. Some CAMs have been suggesting some convection over the terrain in our far southwestern zones, but there isn`t any real agreement among the hi-res models for this development. CAMs have also not had a good handle on the weak shower activity along the frontal boundary to our southeast, so taking their guidance with a grain of salt. Currently do not have PoPs in our southwest, but will continue to monitor later this afternoon and see what (if anything) initiates upstream. Compared to recent days, today feels less hot and humid with highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the 60s, apparent temperatures running 3-4 degrees warmer in general. Winds today are fairly light out of the northwest, and likely goes calm in many locations tonight as brief high pressure builds in from the northwest. Lows tonight will be a bit cooler in the low 70s for most of the area, and upper 60s in the mountains. Metros and areas along the water will only get down to the upper 70s or 80. The lower humidity will make the overnight feel less muggy than previous nights however. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... On Monday, the boundary stalled currently stalled to our southeast is expected to lift back into the region as a warm front. With moisture returning to the area on southeasterly flow, and southwesterly flow aloft, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening. The focus of shower activity will depend on the location of the front, but for now best chances appear to be over the Shenandoah Valley and portions of central Virginia. High temperatures rise into the mid to upper 90s for much of the area, and heat indices to over 100 east of the Blue Ridge. The large trough over the central CONUS is expected to advance eastward on Tuesday, possibly absorbing remnants of Beryl. A frontal boundary is still expected to be stalled over our area. While southerly flow will continue to bring moisture into the region and enable scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, flow aloft looks to become more westerly, which could suppress shower activity in comparison to Monday. Temperatures Tuesday will be similar to Monday, but the increasing humidity likely results in slightly higher heat indices, approaching or exceeding 100 degrees for much of the area, and 105 east of the Blue Ridge. We will continue to monitor the heat risk. As we get towards midweek, the forecast for our area becomes more dependent on Beryl`s evolution, so confidence for Tuesday`s forecast is low. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A frontal zone is expected to continue drifting northward away from the area on Wednesday. This places the Mid-Atlantic region squarely in the warm/moist sector which carries dew points back into the mid 70s. In addition to the increasing humidity levels, high temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 90s which would contribute to 100 to 105 degree heat index values. With southwesterly flow aloft ushering in a series of disturbances through the region, an increasingly unsettled pattern looms ahead. One wild card in play is the remnants of Beryl which are expected to usher in tropical moisture across the Ohio Valley into the Mid- Atlantic. Where the best energetics and moisture transport reside will provide an additional emphasis for heavier rainfall. This would ultimately dictate where any flash flood threat will set up. On Thursday, the forecast has trended warmer with an upstream cold front not slated to reach the area until at least midday. The current forecast calls for high temperatures in the low 90s with heat indices nearing the century mark. With the remnants of Beryl still in the vicinity, showers and thunderstorms are likely to persist into Thursday. A residual flooding threat cannot be ruled out given the multi-day nature of this system. With subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic holding strong, this frontal passage will be slow and perhaps lead to another stalled boundary. The latest forecast shows this system lingering over the general area through early in the weekend before shearing out. High temperatures stay near average through Saturday before warming back up into the low/mid 90s by Sunday. Continued opportunities for showers and thunderstorms also loom given the stalled front nearby. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected today, and most of time for Monday and Tuesday. The boundary to our southeast returns as a warm front on Monday, bringing showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. CHO and MRB appear most likely to see precipitation at this time, but will depend on where the boundary sets up on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible Tuesday, but confidence on where is currently low. The forecast for Tuesday and onwards is more dependent on Beryl/Beryl`s remnants, so has been less consistent. Currently appears the westerly flow aloft on Tuesday will suppress shower activity in comparison to Monday. With the remnants of Beryl passing nearby on Wednesday and Thursday, there should be some periods of restrictions at the area terminals. This would include a risk of thunderstorms given the degree of instability in the atmosphere. An unsettled weather pattern continues into Friday with additional restrictions possible. Southerly winds are expected through Thursday with afternoon gusts up to 15 knots. Behind a weak front, winds turn more variable on Friday. && .MARINE... Light north/northeast flow today becomes east tonight and then southerly on Monday. Winds are expected to gradually increase out of the south through Tuesday. Sub-SCA winds are expected on Monday, but winds over the waters could approach SCA criteria by Tuesday afternoon, especially with any southerly channeling. Additionally, a warm front lifts back into the region Monday and likely lingers on Tuesday. Any associated showers and thunderstorms could bring stronger gusts to the waters. Most storms are expected to be west of the waters on Monday, but Tuesday is less certain. There will be some opportunities for Small Craft Advisories during portions of Wednesday and Thursday owing to southerly channeling effects. Additionally, convective chances also increase as a front and the remnants of Beryl approach from the west. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for any of the stronger thunderstorms. This boundary stalls nearby on Friday leading to continued opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Depending on where the boundary sets up, southerly channeling may become a factor again on Friday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for DCZ001. MD...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for MDZ004>006-008- 011-013-014-016>018-503>508. VA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for VAZ039-040-050- 051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527. WV...None. MARINE...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ530. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CAS/KRR NEAR TERM...AVS/CAS SHORT TERM...CAS LONG TERM...BRO AVIATION...BRO/CAS MARINE...BRO/CAS