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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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322 FXUS64 KLUB 170751 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 251 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Expansive upper level high pressure will continue to be the main driver of regional weather in the near term, with the center of the ridging aloft progged to shift slightly eastward over the next 24 hours. As proven by relatively widespread convection last evening, fairly substantial midlevel moisture still remains trapped beneath the ridging aloft. Most model solutions suggest this feature will continue to play a factor in today`s weather, though to a lesser extent compared to days past as the moisture plume continues to dilute beneath the expanding dome of high pressure. Similar to yesterday, showers and storms will likely once again develop by mid/late afternoon over the southern TX Panhandle and northern portions of the South/Rolling Plains, though most hi-res solutions suggest this activity should remain quite isolated. Even so, a gust or two up to 60 mph will be possible beneath the stronger updrafts given DCAPE values above 1500 J/kg. A bit more uncertainty also exists regarding today`s high temperatures given the substantial convective debris cloud cover still in place early this morning and measurable rainfall observed over much of the Caprock. In general, highs today were kept close to the blended initialization on the Caprock, which still results in temperatures over 100 degrees this afternoon. In contrast, the high end of guidance was again favored for areas off the Caprock which did not see measurable rainfall yesterday with highs in this region reaching 105 to 109 degrees, and a Heat Advisory is in effect for these locations from noon until 8 PM. Adding on to any adverse effects of the daytime heat will be very mild nighttime lows, with temperatures only expected to fall into the upper 70s off the Caprock by Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Triple-digit heat plays out every day through the extended under a mostly stationary upper high now progged to stay closer to the South Plains for much of the week. The only nugget of possible good news involves what may be a backdoor cold front arriving as early as Monday in our northeastern counties which might allow a reprieve from 105+ highs. At this time, such a scenario hinges on outflow from MCSs in NW flow over the central plains that would help drive the front into our domain. Not surprisingly, global models are not resolving this mesoscale signal compared to recent runs of the NAM, so will await greater NWP support before advertising any kind of disruption to our heatwave. The latest ECM is now very similar to the GFS in keeping the upper high nearby from Wednesday through Friday with H5 heights hovering around 597 dam. This implies no meaningful change in day-to-day highs and unfortunately little hope for rain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Convection will continue to gradually decrease in coverage during the overnight period, however scattered TS and the associated potential for erratic wind gusts will continue in the vicinity of LBB and PVW over the next couple of hours. Outside of convection, expect VFR to prevail through the next 24 hours. Additional TS may develop once again this afternoon, but confidence in timing and areal coverage in convection later today is still quite low. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...30