068
FXUS64 KLUB 170527
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The upper ridge has been slowly meandering eastward this morning and
expected to be centered over New Mexico by this afternoon. Height
rises and south southwesterly downsloping surface winds will help to
give way to widespread triple digit heat across the forecast area.
As convective temperatures are breached this afternoon, the chance
for thunderstorms will increase along surface troughing across
eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle. As of 1 PM CDT, the
development of cumulus clouds can be seen on visible satellite
imagery across eastern New Mexico into the Panhandle of Texas and
Oklahoma in conjunction with a shallow layer of mid-level moisture.
Not much buoyant air present today with SBCAPE values around or less
than 1000 J/kg. However, bulk shear around 20 to 25 knots will
suffice for supporting a few updrafts. Storms will be high-based
with DCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Thus, the main threats this
evening will be strong wind gusts. Any storm that develops may
produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding concerns. Storms will
quickly diminish as the sun sets and the boundary layer decouples
with the loss of daytime heating.

Tonight, temperatures will mild and remain above normal in the upper
60s to 70s. The upper ridge will continue to move northeast into
northeastern New Mexico. Southerly surface winds will prevail with
continued widespread triple digit heat. Thus, a Heat Advisory for
will be issued for tomorrow afternoon Noon to 8 PM CDT.
Precipitation chances remain low tomorrow afternoon. However, if a
storm or two were to develop the best chances would be across the
far southern Texas Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The heat will continue unabated through the forecast period as upper
level ridging will remain overhead, although the center of this
ridge will have some movement that will cause some relatively minor
fluctuations in day-to-day temperatures. The relatively flat/zonal
pattern over the CONUS with the subtropical ridge extending from
southern California to the Gulf Coast today will amplify through the
weekend with the ridge building northward over the entirety of the
Great Plains while troughs over both coasts deepen. This will bring
the center of the high over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles before
a modest retrograde westward over eastern New Mexico early next
week. The highly amplified pattern over the eastern two-thirds of
the CONUS could lead to some surface flow moving into the forecast
area with the possibility of some cooling away from the more extreme
temperatures of the weekend to early next week. However, 12Z
extended MOS values are backing off on the cooling and approaching
the warm end of guidance where NBM sits. Will make no change from
the initialization while will lead to likely Heat Advisory criteria
being reached off the Caprock each day through Wednesday and
possibly beyond that into Thursday and Friday. Unfortunately the
strength and positioning of the ridge do not favor precipitation
across the forecast area at least through Wednesday and likely
through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Convection will continue to gradually decrease in coverage during
the overnight period, however scattered TS and the associated
potential for erratic wind gusts will continue in the vicinity of
LBB and PVW over the next couple of hours. Outside of convection,
expect VFR to prevail through the next 24 hours. Additional TS may
develop once again this afternoon, but confidence in timing and
areal coverage in convection later today is still quite low.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30