![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
068 FXUS64 KLUB 170527 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The upper ridge has been slowly meandering eastward this morning and expected to be centered over New Mexico by this afternoon. Height rises and south southwesterly downsloping surface winds will help to give way to widespread triple digit heat across the forecast area. As convective temperatures are breached this afternoon, the chance for thunderstorms will increase along surface troughing across eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle. As of 1 PM CDT, the development of cumulus clouds can be seen on visible satellite imagery across eastern New Mexico into the Panhandle of Texas and Oklahoma in conjunction with a shallow layer of mid-level moisture. Not much buoyant air present today with SBCAPE values around or less than 1000 J/kg. However, bulk shear around 20 to 25 knots will suffice for supporting a few updrafts. Storms will be high-based with DCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Thus, the main threats this evening will be strong wind gusts. Any storm that develops may produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding concerns. Storms will quickly diminish as the sun sets and the boundary layer decouples with the loss of daytime heating. Tonight, temperatures will mild and remain above normal in the upper 60s to 70s. The upper ridge will continue to move northeast into northeastern New Mexico. Southerly surface winds will prevail with continued widespread triple digit heat. Thus, a Heat Advisory for will be issued for tomorrow afternoon Noon to 8 PM CDT. Precipitation chances remain low tomorrow afternoon. However, if a storm or two were to develop the best chances would be across the far southern Texas Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The heat will continue unabated through the forecast period as upper level ridging will remain overhead, although the center of this ridge will have some movement that will cause some relatively minor fluctuations in day-to-day temperatures. The relatively flat/zonal pattern over the CONUS with the subtropical ridge extending from southern California to the Gulf Coast today will amplify through the weekend with the ridge building northward over the entirety of the Great Plains while troughs over both coasts deepen. This will bring the center of the high over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles before a modest retrograde westward over eastern New Mexico early next week. The highly amplified pattern over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS could lead to some surface flow moving into the forecast area with the possibility of some cooling away from the more extreme temperatures of the weekend to early next week. However, 12Z extended MOS values are backing off on the cooling and approaching the warm end of guidance where NBM sits. Will make no change from the initialization while will lead to likely Heat Advisory criteria being reached off the Caprock each day through Wednesday and possibly beyond that into Thursday and Friday. Unfortunately the strength and positioning of the ridge do not favor precipitation across the forecast area at least through Wednesday and likely through the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Convection will continue to gradually decrease in coverage during the overnight period, however scattered TS and the associated potential for erratic wind gusts will continue in the vicinity of LBB and PVW over the next couple of hours. Outside of convection, expect VFR to prevail through the next 24 hours. Additional TS may develop once again this afternoon, but confidence in timing and areal coverage in convection later today is still quite low. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...30