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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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023 FXUS64 KLUB 171946 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 246 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 The upper ridge continues to spin over northeast New Mexico this afternoon and is expected to meander east over West Texas by tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to stay well above normal today, tonight and tomorrow. Highs will be warmest off the Caprock with temperatures ranging from 105 to 109 with a Heat Advisory in effect for this area through 8 PM CDT tonight. A Heat Advisory is expected to be issued tonight for tomorrow across the same area with once again highs around 105 to 109 degrees. Near record high temperatures are possible at CDS this afternoon and both LBB and CDS and tomorrow. Tonight temperatures will remain mild in the upper 60s to 70s. However, any precipitation that develops this afternoon/evening may help to lower these temperatures overnight. Mid-level satellite water vapor imagery reveals an increase in moisture across the forecast area with the remnants from precipitation over southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Convective temperatures will be reached today with the widespread triple digit heat. Visible satellite shows bubbling cumulus developing across the forecast area with lift from thermals. In addition, any lingering outflow boundaries from last night`s storms may be the focus area for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Wind shear values are weak around 20 knots or less, but there is enough buoyancy to sustain a few isolated updrafts this afternoon with SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg. Main threats with these few storms would be strong to damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph with DCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Any storms that develop should weaken or diminish later this evening after sunset with a lack of forcing under the dome of high pressure. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 No major changes were made to the long term forecast this afternoon....long term begins Sunday evening with an mid-level ridge parked over Generally west to southwesterly surface flow and warm to hot temperatures will be common through the long term. Given the warm temperatures and lack of deep moisture, convection chances will be extremely limited through next weekend. High temperatures in the 100s to 107F will be common each day through Friday with lows barely falling into 70s. Towards mid week the eastern Rolling Plains could see temperatures near advisory levels. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at all three sites. There is a small chance for an isolated thunderstorm to develop this afternoon, but confidence is low on development and location so no mention was given in this TAF issuance. Amendments will be made where necessary. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032- 037-038-042>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....28 AVIATION...11