607
FXUS64 KLUB 081106
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
606 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

 - Storm chances return this afternoon and evening, with drier
   and warmer weather expected Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may return each afternoon
   Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The main synoptic feature of interest continues to be a broad upper
level ridge centered over AZ and NM which is progged to remain in
generally the same location through the next 24 hours. Modest
northwesterly flow will consequently persist over West TX through
late Tuesday, which combined with ample midlevel monsoonal moisture
and fairly moist low levels will support a continuation of
thunderstorm chances over most of the forecast area. Although there
is high confidence that this synoptic pattern will bring periods of
thunderstorms to at least some portion of the area today through
tonight, exactly where these storms will end up focusing is
uncertain. A cluster of storms has already made its way into the SW
TX Panhandle early this morning, and will likely leave a residual
outflow boundary somewhere near the I-27 corridor after it
dissipates within a few hours. There is also potential for a
separate cluster of storms over the OK Panhandle at 04z to survive
long enough to make it into the southern TX Panhandle later this
morning in a similar fashion to what occurred yesterday, but this is
much less certain.

Nevertheless, lingering surface boundaries from this overnight
convection may serve as an initial focus for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon, as model soundings depict an uncapped
and moderately unstable environment (MUCAPEs above 2000 J/kg)
developing after 20z. Given the instability present in addition to
slightly more impressive bulk shear magnitudes near 25 kt, a few
severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening
hours today with hail up to half dollar size and wind gusts up to 65
mph possible. Will maintain fairly broad PoPs today due to
uncertainty on boundary placement and the uncapped atmosphere, but
activity should remain scattered. Tonight, the northwest to north-
northwest flow setup will support a continued possibility of
upstream convection propagating into our area well after sunset, so
will maintain broad PoPs overnight as well until details on this
potential become better resolved later today. The severe threat
overnight will still be present, but will likely be lower than
during the daytime hours today. Regarding temperatures today and
tonight, expect similar or a bit warmer conditions compared to the
past few days with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight
lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The long term forecast package remains on track this evening with
warmer and drier conditions expected through mid-week before we see
renewed precipitation chances once again this weekend through
early next week. The upper level ridge that has been parked over
the Desert Southwest over the last several days will begin to
flatten and expand eastward over much of the Texas Panhandle by
the middle of the week. As the FA becomes more encompassed by the
upper level high, thickness values across the region will begin to
increase. Additionally, lee surface troughing will develop as the
surface high departs to the east allowing for the return of the
westerly component to the southerly surface winds. As a result of
this, temperatures will become the hottest of the week Wednesday
through Friday, climbing into the mid to upper 90s. Overall
precipitation chances look limited Wednesday and Thursday given
the position of the upper level ridge, however, there is a chance
for moisture trapped beneath the ridge to interact with subtle
disturbances or remnant outflow boundaries across the region to
generate isolated showers and thunderstorms. This will lead to a
non-zero, but small, chance for PoPs primarily across the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle with the best chance for storms
tracking in from the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. Towards
late week, the upper level ridge and associated high pressure
system will shift west as an upper level trough digs through the
Intermountain West into the Great Plains, with ensembles hinting
at cooler and wetter conditions through the weekend. Given winds
look to back out of the southeast by Friday morning, with a
surface low centered over eastern New Mexico, moisture transport
will return from the Gulf with dewpoints progged in the 60s and
70s through much of the weekend. Forecast soundings across the
region also indicate a well saturated column of moisture from the
surface to mid-levels along with PWATs well above the 99th
percentile seasonal normal around 1.5" to 1.75". Although the main
source of lift will remain well to our north, shortwaves rounding
the southern periphery of the trough will translate across the
region, allowing for slight chance to chance PoPs across the FA
through the weekend. Additionally, temperatures will also cool
given the increase in moisture, with highs a few degrees cooler
through the weekend in the 80s and 90s.

For Wednesday through the second half of the week, the ridging
aloft is progged to flatten and extend farther eastward over TX as
a stronger upper level shortwave trough moves over the
northwestern CONUS. This will bring a general decrease in daily
storm chances while also resulting in a warming trend late week.
Temperatures will begin the week near seasonal averages, but highs
will likely reach into the mid to upper 90s Thursday and beyond,
which is a few degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

There is a slight chance of storms this afternoon and evening area
wide but coverage is expected to be low so no mention was made in
the TAF. There is a non-zero chance of low CIGS/visbys Wednesday
morning but chances are too low to mention in the TAF at the
moment.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01