488
FXUS64 KLUB 171738
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1238 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Expansive upper level high pressure will continue to be the main
driver of regional weather in the near term, with the center of the
ridging aloft progged to shift slightly eastward over the next 24
hours. As proven by relatively widespread convection last evening,
fairly substantial midlevel moisture still remains trapped beneath
the ridging aloft. Most model solutions suggest this feature will
continue to play a factor in today`s weather, though to a lesser
extent compared to days past as the moisture plume continues to
dilute beneath the expanding dome of high pressure. Similar to
yesterday, showers and storms will likely once again develop by
mid/late afternoon over the southern TX Panhandle and northern
portions of the South/Rolling Plains, though most hi-res solutions
suggest this activity should remain quite isolated. Even so, a gust
or two up to 60 mph will be possible beneath the stronger updrafts
given DCAPE values above 1500 J/kg. A bit more uncertainty also
exists regarding today`s high temperatures given the substantial
convective debris cloud cover still in place early this morning and
measurable rainfall observed over much of the Caprock. In general,
highs today were kept close to the blended initialization on the
Caprock, which still results in temperatures over 100 degrees this
afternoon. In contrast, the high end of guidance was again favored
for areas off the Caprock which did not see measurable rainfall
yesterday with highs in this region reaching 105 to 109 degrees, and
a Heat Advisory is in effect for these locations from noon until 8
PM. Adding on to any adverse effects of the daytime heat will be
very mild nighttime lows, with temperatures only expected to fall
into the upper 70s off the Caprock by Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Triple-digit heat plays out every day through the extended under a
mostly stationary upper high now progged to stay closer to the South
Plains for much of the week. The only nugget of possible good
news involves what may be a backdoor cold front arriving as early
as Monday in our northeastern counties which might allow a reprieve
from 105+ highs. At this time, such a scenario hinges on outflow
from MCSs in NW flow over the central plains that would help drive
the front into our domain. Not surprisingly, global models are
not resolving this mesoscale signal compared to recent runs of the
NAM, so will await greater NWP support before advertising any
kind of disruption to our heatwave. The latest ECM is now very
similar to the GFS in keeping the upper high nearby from Wednesday
through Friday with H5 heights hovering around 597 dam. This
implies no meaningful change in day-to-day highs and unfortunately
little hope for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at
all three sites. There is a small chance for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop this afternoon, but confidence is low on
development and location so no mention was given in this TAF
issuance. Amendments will be made where necessary. Check density
altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...11