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Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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289 FXUS64 KLUB 110747 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 247 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 06Z upper air analysis depicts a quasi-zonal pattern across the northern U.S. as the vertically-stacked low weakens over Sault Ste. Marie ahead of another shortwave trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. This has maintained the deamplified, subtropical ridging over the southern half of the nation, with the elongated center of the anticyclonic circulation meandering from central North Texas and into the southern Rocky Mountains as per recent water-vapor imagery. The subtropical jet streak will remain far to the north of the CWA; however, the southern periphery of this longwave feature will continue to eclipse the TX PH today, with a belt of 250 mb flow approaching 30 kt near the I-40 corridor and weakening quickly with southward extent into the CWA. The 11/00Z objectively analyzed upper air map data and 11/00Z balloon data from WFO AMA revealed 30 kt of northwesterly flow, and this should be maintained throughout the scope of the short-term period. At the surface, the quasi-stationary front has transitioned into a slow-moving warm front, and was positioned north-northeast of the CWA per recent METAR, Oklahoma Mesonet, and West Texas Mesonet (WTM) data. Return flow persists area-wide this morning in response to the leeward pressure falls associated with the cross-barrier flow aloft and as the 1022 mb surface anticyclone rotates into Missouri. Winds will veer southwestward after sunrise while remaining breezy owing to the weak, isallobaric response from lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. The effects of adiabatic compression associated with the southwesterly breeze, in addition to full insolation, will boost temperatures to near or slightly above 100 degrees across the entire CWA today. Secondary cyclogenesis is forecast to occur along the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains by the late-afternoon hours, which should cause surface winds to back towards the south heading into the evening and overnight hours. A slight, southward shift in the superposition of the deformed center of the ridge is expected to occur as a well-defined shortwave perturbation translates over the central Rocky Mountains later today. The net result of this will be an uptick in the total magnitude of steering flow along the northern apex of the stretched center of circulation aloft, with about 30 kt of difluent, mid- and high-level flow advecting into the extreme southern TX PH and northern South Plains. Isolated-to-widely-scattered, high-based thunderstorms should develop across eastern and northeastern New Mexico this afternoon, with storms advecting eastward towards the aforementioned locales towards 00Z. The well-mixed boundary-layer with most-unstable parcels yielding <1,000 J/kg due to an improvement in mid-level lapse rates compared to yesterday via the increased contribution of westerly flow aloft should yield the potential for a few storms to move across the extreme southern TX PH later this evening. Localized downbursts will be possible even with single-cells due to the high LCLs and water-loading of updrafts (e.g., the 11/00Z RAOB from WFO AMA observed a PWAT value 148% above normal, or 1.66"), but the potential for severe-caliber gusts is low as the spatiotemporal extent of storms should be limited. Isolated (10-20 percent) PoPs have been manually drawn across the aforementioned areas through 06Z tonight given this thinking. Otherwise, a dry and very warm night will follow with low temperatures ranging from the upper 60s along the New Mexico state line to near 80 degrees along the 100th meridian; and the latter low temperature forecast will further enhance heat stress on property and vegetation. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Time to flip this broken record forecast this week. The elongated upper ridge will be positioned from New Mexico to southeast Texas with very hot above normal temperatures on tap for tomorrow. Highs will be in the upper 90s and approaching triple digits along the Caprock. Meanwhile, temperatures off the Caprock will be around 100 to 105 degrees with near Heat Advisory criteria. The upper ridge will meander east towards the Arklatex area tomorrow evening, which will bring a slightly "cooler" (few degrees) change in temperatures through midweek. Outside of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle, much of the monsoonal moisture will remain west and north of the forecast area with the setup aloft. By midweek, models are trending towards a shortwave trough moving across the Mountain West and into the Plains by Thursday, with another ridge building across the Desert Southwest. Depending on the strength and timing of the shortwave, a cold front may help to chip away at some additional relief to these hot temperatures. In addition, the surface front coupled with the ridge building into New Mexico may funnel some of the monsoonal moisture into the area and bring an increase to precipitation chances. The ensembles are still not overly hyped about precipitation chances, but the trend has been slowly increasing towards a more favorable pattern for precipitation chances to return to the forecast area later this week. Due to model inconsistencies, details for the end of next week are not set in stone with much uncertainty in this potential change to the mundane hot and dry weather pattern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR next 24 hours. Breezy, southeasterly winds overnight will veer to the southwest later this morning and into the afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...09