289
FXUS64 KLUB 110747
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
247 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

06Z upper air analysis depicts a quasi-zonal pattern across the
northern U.S. as the vertically-stacked low weakens over Sault Ste.
Marie ahead of another shortwave trough digging into the Pacific
Northwest. This has maintained the deamplified, subtropical ridging
over the southern half of the nation, with the elongated center of
the anticyclonic circulation meandering from central North Texas and
into the southern Rocky Mountains as per recent water-vapor imagery.
The subtropical jet streak will remain far to the north of the CWA;
however, the southern periphery of this longwave feature will
continue to eclipse the TX PH today, with a belt of 250 mb flow
approaching 30 kt near the I-40 corridor and weakening quickly with
southward extent into the CWA. The 11/00Z objectively analyzed upper
air map data and 11/00Z balloon data from WFO AMA revealed 30 kt of
northwesterly flow, and this should be maintained throughout the
scope of the short-term period.

At the surface, the quasi-stationary front has transitioned into a
slow-moving warm front, and was positioned north-northeast of the
CWA per recent METAR, Oklahoma Mesonet, and West Texas Mesonet (WTM)
data. Return flow persists area-wide this morning in response to the
leeward pressure falls associated with the cross-barrier flow aloft
and as the 1022 mb surface anticyclone rotates into Missouri. Winds
will veer southwestward after sunrise while remaining breezy owing
to the weak, isallobaric response from lee cyclogenesis in eastern
Colorado. The effects of adiabatic compression associated with the
southwesterly breeze, in addition to full insolation, will boost
temperatures to near or slightly above 100 degrees across the entire
CWA today. Secondary cyclogenesis is forecast to occur along the lee
of the Sandia Manzano Mountains by the late-afternoon hours, which
should cause surface winds to back towards the south heading into
the evening and overnight hours.

A slight, southward shift in the superposition of the deformed
center of the ridge is expected to occur as a well-defined shortwave
perturbation translates over the central Rocky Mountains later
today. The net result of this will be an uptick in the total
magnitude of steering flow along the northern apex of the stretched
center of circulation aloft, with about 30 kt of difluent, mid- and
high-level flow advecting into the extreme southern TX PH and
northern South Plains. Isolated-to-widely-scattered, high-based
thunderstorms should develop across eastern and northeastern New
Mexico this afternoon, with storms advecting eastward towards the
aforementioned locales towards 00Z. The well-mixed boundary-layer
with most-unstable parcels yielding <1,000 J/kg due to an
improvement in mid-level lapse rates compared to yesterday via the
increased contribution of westerly flow aloft should yield the
potential for a few storms to move across the extreme southern TX PH
later this evening.

Localized downbursts will be possible even with single-cells due to
the high LCLs and water-loading of updrafts (e.g., the 11/00Z RAOB
from WFO AMA observed a PWAT value 148% above normal, or 1.66"), but
the potential for severe-caliber gusts is low as the spatiotemporal
extent of storms should be limited. Isolated (10-20 percent) PoPs
have been manually drawn across the aforementioned areas through 06Z
tonight given this thinking. Otherwise, a dry and very warm night
will follow with low temperatures ranging from the upper 60s along
the New Mexico state line to near 80 degrees along the 100th
meridian; and the latter low temperature forecast will further
enhance heat stress on property and vegetation.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Time to flip this broken record forecast this week. The elongated
upper ridge will be positioned from New Mexico to southeast Texas
with very hot above normal temperatures on tap for tomorrow. Highs
will be in the upper 90s and approaching triple digits along the
Caprock. Meanwhile, temperatures off the Caprock will be around 100
to 105 degrees with near Heat Advisory criteria. The upper ridge
will meander east towards the Arklatex area tomorrow evening, which
will bring a slightly "cooler" (few degrees) change in temperatures
through midweek. Outside of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle,
much of the monsoonal moisture will remain west and north of the
forecast area with the setup aloft.

By midweek, models are trending towards a shortwave trough moving
across the Mountain West and into the Plains by Thursday, with
another ridge building across the Desert Southwest. Depending on the
strength and timing of the shortwave, a cold front may help to chip
away at some additional relief to these hot temperatures. In
addition, the surface front coupled with the ridge building into New
Mexico may funnel some of the monsoonal moisture into the area and
bring an increase to precipitation chances. The ensembles are still
not overly hyped about precipitation chances, but the trend has been
slowly increasing towards a more favorable pattern for precipitation
chances to return to the forecast area later this week. Due to model
inconsistencies, details for the end of next week are not set in
stone with much uncertainty in this potential change to the mundane
hot and dry weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR next 24 hours. Breezy, southeasterly winds overnight will veer
to the southwest later this morning and into the afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...09