382
FXUS64 KLUB 121922
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
222 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

The forecast will appear as if someone needs to bump the needle on
the record. Our resident upper high will continue to dominate that
pattern tonight and tomorrow. The center of the upper high will
remain just to our east. This will keep meaningful precip to the
west and north of the FA. This is not to say that precip is fully
impossible to come by, though it is not easy. An example is what is
currently visible on radar as of 1230 PM, widely isolated and very
light rain showers placed just ahead of a surface boundary across
our northern zones. Accumulation will likely amount to a trace, at
best a hundredth or two of an inch. This type of scenario will be
the best chance for precip tonight and tomorrow and will rely on
outflow from convection well into northeastern New Mexico. The good
side of the upper high being slightly to our east is it should
continue to help keep highs across the Rolling Plains below advisory
level.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Hot and dry conditions will generally be the main theme of the
coming week under an upper ridge. The best chances for any
thunderstorms remains Wednesday and Thursday during the
afternoon/evening hours as an trough tracks to the north. Much of
the best associated forcing parameters will be well to the north of
the CWA, however enough moisture and daytime instability will be
present. A low-level jet Wednesday evening in particular will
combine with this and aid in storm development. Nonetheless,
coverage would likely not be very widespread. While isolated
convection cannot be ruled out, a stronger upper ridge will build
into the weekend and the resultant stronger cap would inhibit storm
development. However, at or near triple-digit heat will persist for
the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51