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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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382 FXUS64 KLUB 121922 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 222 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The forecast will appear as if someone needs to bump the needle on the record. Our resident upper high will continue to dominate that pattern tonight and tomorrow. The center of the upper high will remain just to our east. This will keep meaningful precip to the west and north of the FA. This is not to say that precip is fully impossible to come by, though it is not easy. An example is what is currently visible on radar as of 1230 PM, widely isolated and very light rain showers placed just ahead of a surface boundary across our northern zones. Accumulation will likely amount to a trace, at best a hundredth or two of an inch. This type of scenario will be the best chance for precip tonight and tomorrow and will rely on outflow from convection well into northeastern New Mexico. The good side of the upper high being slightly to our east is it should continue to help keep highs across the Rolling Plains below advisory level. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Hot and dry conditions will generally be the main theme of the coming week under an upper ridge. The best chances for any thunderstorms remains Wednesday and Thursday during the afternoon/evening hours as an trough tracks to the north. Much of the best associated forcing parameters will be well to the north of the CWA, however enough moisture and daytime instability will be present. A low-level jet Wednesday evening in particular will combine with this and aid in storm development. Nonetheless, coverage would likely not be very widespread. While isolated convection cannot be ruled out, a stronger upper ridge will build into the weekend and the resultant stronger cap would inhibit storm development. However, at or near triple-digit heat will persist for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...51