890
FXUS64 KLUB 270802
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
302 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 251 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

 - Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish
   through the rest of this morning with an additional round of
   thunderstorms then expected to develop this afternoon and
   evening.

 - Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue across most of
   the region each day this weekend through the middle of next
   week.

 - A gradual warming trend is expected through the upcoming
   weekend before a modest cool-down arrives early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Early morning water vapor imagery highlights a continued unsettled
monsoon-like upper air pattern continuing over the south-central
CONUS with very moist but weak southwesterly flow aloft persisting
over TX. This general setup will remain more or less unchanged today
as a weak upper low over FL/GA keeps a compact upper ridge locked in
place over SE TX, resulting in the continued presence of southwest
flow aloft and the associated monsoonal moisture plume over West
TX. Residual showers and storms ongoing at 07z will continue
through the pre-dawn hours while gradually diminishing in coverage,
but it is uncertain exactly how long this activity will continue
into the morning. Similar to the past several days, morning
convection is not anticipated to have too drastic an impact on the
potential for storms later in the day, aside from outflow
boundaries providing a focus for initial afternoon development. In
a similar fashion to yesterday, despite some cloud cover, diurnal
heating should be sufficient for convective temperatures to be
reached by mid afternoon, which given the moist and uncapped
airmass will likely result in an additional round of isolated to
scattered showers and storms today. Given the convective evolution
seen over the past several days within a similar surface and
synoptic setup, storms will be possible just about anywhere today
and will therefore maintain mentionable PoPs area-wide. Brief
heavy rain again looks possible, but the severe threat remains
very low given the weak flow aloft. Again similar to the past
several days, at least isolated showers and storms will likely
continue through late evening before gradually diminishing by
early Saturday morning. Temperatures today will remain near or
slightly below normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, with
lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The long term forecast package remains untouched this afternoon with
the FA finding itself beneath the ever persistent upper level ridge
that is expected to dominate over much of the southern half of the
United States through the weekend and into early next week. Despite
upper level ridging overhead, daily chances for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will continue, primarily across our most western
column of counties, through the weekend as an axis of monsoonal
moisture continues to extend across the West Texas region into the
Central Plains. Given the lack of overall forcing and instability
present, the overall severe threat looks to remain low with mostly
steady showers and a few rumbles of thunder possible. Temperatures
will also continue to gradually warm each afternoon through the
weekend, with subsidence at the surface allowing for increased
thickness values across the region. Which combined with the warm
southerly surface winds will result in temperatures climbing into
the lower to upper 90s. Given the presence of moisture through the
lower to mid levels on forecast soundings, along with previous days,
there is a chance any low to mid-level cloud cover that lingers
through parts of the afternoon could hinder daytime highs. However,
confidence in this remains low with the expectation of any cloud
cover, if any, that develops to diminish before peak heating. As we
head into the start of the work week next week, an upper level
trough moving onshore the California coast will work to amplify the
upper level ridge across the Desert Southwest while a secondary
trough digs through the Upper Midwest. As a result, flow aloft will
begin to turn more northerly, with subtle perturbations riding down
the eastern side of the ridge may work with the consistent monsoonal
moisture axis to generate thunderstorms across much of the Caprock
as early as Sunday night through Tuesday. Monday night into Tuesday
night looks to be the best window for precipitation chances, with the
monsoonal plume directed right across the FA. Along with the renewed
precipitation chances, temperatures will likely cool a few degrees
early next week with highs in the 80s to lower 90s thanks to
decreased thickness values and expected cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Scattered to numerous TSRA are likely to continue in the vicinity
of all terminals through at least the next several hours before
diminishing closer to sunrise. PVW and CDS are most likely to see
direct impacts from TSRA with CIGs and visibility possibly falling
to MVFR or IFR within convection. There is greater uncertainty on
whether TS impacts LBB tonight, so will cover with a PROB30 for
the time being. Expect a lull in convective activity from sunrise
through the rest of the morning before additional TSRA develop
this afternoon. Confidence in TS evolution this afternoon is still
very uncertain, so will cover that potential in future TAF
issuances. Outside of convection, VFR will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30