Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
205 FXUS64 KLUB 071753 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Thunderstorm chances again this evening and possibly late tonight into early Tuesday. - Storm chances continue for Tuesday evening, with drier and warmer weather expected Wednesday through Friday. - Isolated storms may return next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 This morning`s MCS has all but dissipated completely as of late morning. Outflow from it has brought slightly drier air into the forecast area, but with post-outflow north winds already veering around to east to southeast low level moist advection will recommence this afternoon. The favored area of afternoon convective initiation remains northeastern New Mexico. Northwest flow aloft and very moist southeasterly low level flow point to a good chance of thunderstorms making at least into the northwestern third of the forecast area this evening. A secondary area of potential convective initiation is well to the north across swrn Kansas/nwrn Oklahoma with the potential of another early morning MCS across the northern zones. Confidence is lower in the latter scenario, and NBM is basically dry 06Z-18Z. Will leave that for now, but that is something that will have to be watched this evening to early morning with precip chances possibly needing to be extended southward overnight and early Tuesday. Finally, Tuesday afternoon could bring a better chance for convective initiation inside the forecast area, mainly across the northwestern third. This is partly pending convective evolution tonight and resultant boundaries and quality of air mass, but potential for both upslope flow and reaching convective temperatures point to NBM slight chance being justified. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday evening. Had to increase POPS about NBM. wever, upper atmospheric temperatures continue warm and guidance suggests thunderstorm chances will decrease especially Wednesday through Friday. Afternoon highs should push to the mid and upper 90s with By this weekend, the subtropical upper high over the southwest US will drift further west possibly bringing northwesterly flow aloft and an increased chance of thunderstorms in the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Will run with clean and simple TAFs for all three terminals at this time. However, the potential exists for TS this evening and again late tonight to early Tuesday. Since confidence on how TS plays out and there is time to adjust TAFs will keep mention out at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...07