834
FXUS64 KLUB 181122
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

More of the same regarding temperatures today with upper level high
pressure still positioned almost squarely overhead. One notable
change from days past is a dry forecast area-wide today with
synoptic models and water vapor channel imagery both highlighting a
drier midlevel airmass filtering into the region from the east. This
combined with some modest mid/upper height rises should result in
high temperatures a degree or two warmer compared to yesterday in
some locations, with highs expected to exceed 100 degrees area-wide
today. Areas off the Caprock still look likely to peak between 105
and 109 degrees, and will therefore maintain a heat advisory there
in a similar configuration to the past several days. Dry and mild
conditions continue tonight with lows generally 5 to 10 degrees
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

The primary challenge in the extended involves a stationary front
currently bisecting KS and how much, if any, this boundary disrupts
our heatwave in the coming days. Global models generally keep this
front out of our area until Wednesday at which point a healthy
shortwave trough in NW flow over the central Missouri River Valley
dives toward the FL Panhandle. This wave results in a backdoor front
with cool and muggy E-SE low-level flow overspreading our
northeastern counties on Wednesday all the while the H5 high
center jogs into eastern NM. Just the westward shift of the high
alone warrants slightly less intense heat for Wednesday, but if
the non-global model camp gains support then this FROPA may
arrive as early as late Monday and continue working past the CWA
on Tuesday ahead of much cooler/non-triple digit highs. Feel this
cooler envelope is too extreme at this time so will stick closer
to a CONSMOS and NBM blend for highs Tue & Wed.

The upper high returns to the South Plains on Thursday complete with
a slight boost in high temps, particularly on the Caprock and away
from the lingering front across our NE zones. Global models are in
good agreement with the high trending weaker Thu and Fri, so high
temps fortunately scale lower by the end of the work week. Add to
this an influx of improved PWATs associated with a TUTT low
working west across southern TX and we should benefit from lower
thicknesses and potentially some rain chances, although the latter
is too conditional for mentionable PoPs at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

VFR will prevail through this TAF period. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...30