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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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834 FXUS64 KLUB 181122 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 More of the same regarding temperatures today with upper level high pressure still positioned almost squarely overhead. One notable change from days past is a dry forecast area-wide today with synoptic models and water vapor channel imagery both highlighting a drier midlevel airmass filtering into the region from the east. This combined with some modest mid/upper height rises should result in high temperatures a degree or two warmer compared to yesterday in some locations, with highs expected to exceed 100 degrees area-wide today. Areas off the Caprock still look likely to peak between 105 and 109 degrees, and will therefore maintain a heat advisory there in a similar configuration to the past several days. Dry and mild conditions continue tonight with lows generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The primary challenge in the extended involves a stationary front currently bisecting KS and how much, if any, this boundary disrupts our heatwave in the coming days. Global models generally keep this front out of our area until Wednesday at which point a healthy shortwave trough in NW flow over the central Missouri River Valley dives toward the FL Panhandle. This wave results in a backdoor front with cool and muggy E-SE low-level flow overspreading our northeastern counties on Wednesday all the while the H5 high center jogs into eastern NM. Just the westward shift of the high alone warrants slightly less intense heat for Wednesday, but if the non-global model camp gains support then this FROPA may arrive as early as late Monday and continue working past the CWA on Tuesday ahead of much cooler/non-triple digit highs. Feel this cooler envelope is too extreme at this time so will stick closer to a CONSMOS and NBM blend for highs Tue & Wed. The upper high returns to the South Plains on Thursday complete with a slight boost in high temps, particularly on the Caprock and away from the lingering front across our NE zones. Global models are in good agreement with the high trending weaker Thu and Fri, so high temps fortunately scale lower by the end of the work week. Add to this an influx of improved PWATs associated with a TUTT low working west across southern TX and we should benefit from lower thicknesses and potentially some rain chances, although the latter is too conditional for mentionable PoPs at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 VFR will prevail through this TAF period. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...30