263
FXUS64 KLUB 132300
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
600 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

A surface low forming in the lee of the Rockies will allow for
breezy southerly winds to continue through this evening. Gusts up to
25 mph are possible, particularly west of I-27. Another hot
afternoon is expected with triple-digit highs off the Caprock and
upper 90s elsewhere. Winds will slightly diminish, but remain breezy
overnight as the aforementioned low departs to the north. Much of
Wednesday will be similar as today, with highs generally a couple
degrees warmer. An upper trough will approach from the west on
Wednesday evening. Combined with a modest low-level jet, forcing
parameters should be enough to help enable thunderstorm development.
SBCAPE will likely be greater than 1000 J/kg west of I-27 with the
daytime heating and PWATs will be on the order of 1-1.25". Both CAMs
and synoptic models are more aggressive with storm development than
yesterday. As such PoPs have been increased to around 30% at their
highest. While severe weather is generally not expected, given the
inverted-V forecast sounding profiles, a few storms may produce
strong winds. These should diminish through the overnight hours into
early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

A progressive upper level pattern will continue through the end of
the week until a strong blocking ridge builds into the center of the
country this weekend. On Thursday, a very weak mid/upper level
trough axis will move across the area situated between the center of
two ridges located in the southwestern and southeastern US. At the
same time during the day on Thursday, a slow moving frontal boundary
will be moving southward through the Texas Panhandle. Additionally,
a surface trough will extend southward near the Texas/New Mexico
state line. Very hot temperatures and near surface convergence will
likely be enough to produce some isolated showers and thunderstorms
along a narrow axis. Details will become clearer as we near Thursday
but areas in the central South Plains and eastward are most favored
for isolated convection. There is some signal in model guidance for
isolated convection again on Friday afternoon but the aforementioned
mid/upper level trough will be located to the south of the area and
we will lose much of the low level convergence we will see on
Thursday. Beginning on Friday and through the weekend, the ridge to
the west of the area will spread more overhead. This ridge is
expected to remain anchored over the Southern Plains until at least
late next week with 500mb heights possibly pushing near 600dm.
Ultimately, this will result in an extended period of very hot
temperatures with little to no chances of convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...51