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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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263 FXUS64 KLUB 132300 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 600 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 A surface low forming in the lee of the Rockies will allow for breezy southerly winds to continue through this evening. Gusts up to 25 mph are possible, particularly west of I-27. Another hot afternoon is expected with triple-digit highs off the Caprock and upper 90s elsewhere. Winds will slightly diminish, but remain breezy overnight as the aforementioned low departs to the north. Much of Wednesday will be similar as today, with highs generally a couple degrees warmer. An upper trough will approach from the west on Wednesday evening. Combined with a modest low-level jet, forcing parameters should be enough to help enable thunderstorm development. SBCAPE will likely be greater than 1000 J/kg west of I-27 with the daytime heating and PWATs will be on the order of 1-1.25". Both CAMs and synoptic models are more aggressive with storm development than yesterday. As such PoPs have been increased to around 30% at their highest. While severe weather is generally not expected, given the inverted-V forecast sounding profiles, a few storms may produce strong winds. These should diminish through the overnight hours into early Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 A progressive upper level pattern will continue through the end of the week until a strong blocking ridge builds into the center of the country this weekend. On Thursday, a very weak mid/upper level trough axis will move across the area situated between the center of two ridges located in the southwestern and southeastern US. At the same time during the day on Thursday, a slow moving frontal boundary will be moving southward through the Texas Panhandle. Additionally, a surface trough will extend southward near the Texas/New Mexico state line. Very hot temperatures and near surface convergence will likely be enough to produce some isolated showers and thunderstorms along a narrow axis. Details will become clearer as we near Thursday but areas in the central South Plains and eastward are most favored for isolated convection. There is some signal in model guidance for isolated convection again on Friday afternoon but the aforementioned mid/upper level trough will be located to the south of the area and we will lose much of the low level convergence we will see on Thursday. Beginning on Friday and through the weekend, the ridge to the west of the area will spread more overhead. This ridge is expected to remain anchored over the Southern Plains until at least late next week with 500mb heights possibly pushing near 600dm. Ultimately, this will result in an extended period of very hot temperatures with little to no chances of convection. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...51