429
FXUS64 KLUB 141110
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
610 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Water vapor imagery early this morning showed a welcome change
upstream in the form of a shortwave trough sliding east from the
Four Corners. Ahead of this wave, an axis of monsoonal moisture will
be shoved out of eastern NM complete with an uptick in PWATs to
nearly 1.5 inches by later this afternoon. This moisture axis will
coincide with a surface trough that remains nearly stationary from
near DUX-CVS-HOB which will serve as a focus for LL convergence.
Enhanced ascent could also emerge from differential heating along
the eastern periphery of the mid-level clouds. Given these factors
along with a cap-free environment, the pros outweigh the cons for
isolated to scattered convection later today favoring the Caprock.
Nudged NBM`s PoPs upward to 30-40% across the western South Plains
where model consensus is greatest. Soundings favor inverted-v and
tall, skinny CAPE profiles in weak flow, so a few pulse storms with
strong winds and locally heavy rain are a good bet until activity
dwindles tonight. Opted to keep lows milder tonight as convective
cloud debris should blanket most areas. Highs today are largely
unchanged from yesterday thanks to little/no change in thicknesses.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The forecast for the extended period remains on track with little
change necessitated with the morning package. The mid/upper-levels
will continue to feature a low-amplitude, progressive wave pattern
across the central and northern tranche of the U.S., with the CWA
remaining positioned beneath a longitudinally-elongated subtropical
ridge on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front generated by the
leading shortwave trough that will be pivoting into the Great Lakes
region will move into the TX PH and become quasi-stationary as
barotropy increases with southward extent. A pre-frontal surface
trough, oriented in a southwest-to-northeast manner, should also
develop beneath the belt of weak, but difluent, flow along the
eastern periphery of the center of the mid/upper-level ridge over
the southern Rocky Mountains. Isallohypsic forcing will be anemic as
the core(s) of the low-amplitude, high-level jet streak(s) will be
displaced nearly 500 tangential miles north of the CWA. Intense,
diabatic surface heating is expected with temperatures breaching 100
degrees across most of the CWA, with the exception of the extreme
southwestern TX PH; and this will result in boundary-layer heights
soaring to near or above 600 mb. Presence of the pre-frontal surface
trough, despite nebulous, large-scale forcing for ascent, should
facilitate enough localized convergence throughout the surface and
low-levels to nudge parcels to the LFC by the mid-afternoon hours.

Isolated to perhaps widely-scattered, high-based thunderstorms are
forecast to develop along or in vicinity of the surface trough, with
slow storm motions governed by the effects of propagation via cold
pool mergers as the southeasterly steering flow aloft should be less
than 10 kt. Spatiotemporal coverage of storms should be limited by
the increasing subsidence aloft as the center of the subtropical
ridge to the west sloshes eastward, with the cessation of vertical
mixing extinguishing storm chances heading into the night. Slight
chance PoPs (<=20 percent) were added in once again from the NBM,
which came in dry, across the CWA less the extreme southwestern TX
PH for Thursday afternoon and evening. Cooler, though still warm,
overnight lows are forecast area-wide heading into Friday morning as
surface winds back to the southeast in response to lee cyclogenesis
across in eastern New Mexico.

Global NWP guidances remains closely aligned with the amplification
of the subtropical ridge as it shifts eastward into the southern
Great Plains by the weekend, with an Omega Block forecast to develop
over North America. Geopotential heights could reach 600 dam as the
subtropical ridge centers over the region. Triple-digit temperatures
are forecast area-wide this weekend into early next week, with
advisory-level heat continuing to be advertised for the Rolling
Plains. Excessive heat will be possible across the Rolling Plains as
high temperatures have increased by 1-2 degrees from the previous
prognostications, with highs closing in on 110 degrees by Monday
while remaining near or below 105 degrees on the Caprock Escarpment.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR with steady S winds of 10-15 knots. ISO-SCT TS are likely to
develop this afternoon initially well W of LBB and PVW before
drawing closer to the terminals this evening, then ending by
midnight. Strong winds are likely with any of these storms.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93