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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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265 FXUS64 KLUB 140724 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 224 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 224 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Water vapor imagery early this morning showed a welcome change upstream in the form of a shortwave trough sliding east from the Four Corners. Ahead of this wave, an axis of monsoonal moisture will be shoved out of eastern NM complete with an uptick in PWATs to nearly 1.5 inches by later this afternoon. This moisture axis will coincide with a surface trough that remains nearly stationary from near DUX-CVS-HOB which will serve as a focus for LL convergence. Enhanced ascent could also emerge from differential heating along the eastern periphery of the mid-level clouds. Given these factors along with a cap-free environment, the pros outweigh the cons for isolated to scattered convection later today favoring the Caprock. Nudged NBM`s PoPs upward to 30-40% across the western South Plains where model consensus is greatest. Soundings favor inverted-v and tall, skinny CAPE profiles in weak flow, so a few pulse storms with strong winds and locally heavy rain are a good bet until activity dwindles tonight. Opted to keep lows milder tonight as convective cloud debris should blanket most areas. Highs today are largely unchanged from yesterday thanks to little/no change in thicknesses. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The forecast for the extended period remains on track with little change necessitated with the morning package. The mid/upper-levels will continue to feature a low-amplitude, progressive wave pattern across the central and northern tranche of the U.S., with the CWA remaining positioned beneath a longitudinally-elongated subtropical ridge on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front generated by the leading shortwave trough that will be pivoting into the Great Lakes region will move into the TX PH and become quasi-stationary as barotropy increases with southward extent. A pre-frontal surface trough, oriented in a southwest-to-northeast manner, should also develop beneath the belt of weak, but difluent, flow along the eastern periphery of the center of the mid/upper-level ridge over the southern Rocky Mountains. Isallohypsic forcing will be anemic as the core(s) of the low-amplitude, high-level jet streak(s) will be displaced nearly 500 tangential miles north of the CWA. Intense, diabatic surface heating is expected with temperatures breaching 100 degrees across most of the CWA, with the exception of the extreme southwestern TX PH; and this will result in boundary-layer heights soaring to near or above 600 mb. Presence of the pre-frontal surface trough, despite nebulous, large-scale forcing for ascent, should facilitate enough localized convergence throughout the surface and low-levels to nudge parcels to the LFC by the mid-afternoon hours. Isolated to perhaps widely-scattered, high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop along or in vicinity of the surface trough, with slow storm motions governed by the effects of propagation via cold pool mergers as the southeasterly steering flow aloft should be less than 10 kt. Spatiotemporal coverage of storms should be limited by the increasing subsidence aloft as the center of the subtropical ridge to the west sloshes eastward, with the cessation of vertical mixing extinguishing storm chances heading into the night. Slight chance PoPs (<=20 percent) were added in once again from the NBM, which came in dry, across the CWA less the extreme southwestern TX PH for Thursday afternoon and evening. Cooler, though still warm, overnight lows are forecast area-wide heading into Friday morning as surface winds back to the southeast in response to lee cyclogenesis across in eastern New Mexico. Global NWP guidances remains closely aligned with the amplification of the subtropical ridge as it shifts eastward into the southern Great Plains by the weekend, with an Omega Block forecast to develop over North America. Geopotential heights could reach 600 dam as the subtropical ridge centers over the region. Triple-digit temperatures are forecast area-wide this weekend into early next week, with advisory-level heat continuing to be advertised for the Rolling Plains. Excessive heat will be possible across the Rolling Plains as high temperatures have increased by 1-2 degrees from the previous prognostications, with highs closing in on 110 degrees by Monday while remaining near or below 105 degrees on the Caprock Escarpment. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR with S winds increasing to around 15 knots by mid-morning. Chances for late afternoon and evening TS will be on the rise for LBB-PVW, though this will be better addressed in later TAFs as timing and coverage concerns come into better focus. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...93