674
FXUS64 KLUB 150522
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The current forecast is still on track for the rest of this
afternoon. A cumulus field has developed in vicinity of the surface
pressure trough where better low level convergence was located.
Increased moisture and a short wave trough was seen approaching the
area per water vapor imagery this afternoon. Isolated to scattered
convective initiation is expected to be around 4-5pm with activity
drifting eastward through the late afternoon into the early evening.
Very high cloud bases will allow convection to produce strong wind
gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

It is looking increasingly likely for scattered storms to develop on
Thursday afternoon across the FA. A very weak trough axis around 700-
500mb was noted in model guidance approaching the area on Thursday
afternoon. Little to no hints of this trough were present in the
upper levels of the atmosphere as indicated by increasing heights
around 250mb. This trough axis will cut across the region from
southwest to northeast above an increasing low level convergent
field. A cold front will be approaching from the north during the
daytime stalling out somewhere around the central to southern Texas
Panhandle. A surface pressure trough will extend southward near the
Texas/New Mexico state line with a weak signal for a pre-frontal
surface trough cutting across the South Plains and Rolling Plains.
Very strong heating will occur across the area with temperatures
near or above 100 degrees everywhere off the caprock and on many
locations on the caprock. The atmosphere will be characterized by a
typical pulse, summer type convective activity. Boundary layer
mixing will reach up to around 650mb or so leading to inverted-V
soundings and a dry sub-cloud layer. Deep layer mixed instability
values will be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg under an uncapped
atmosphere. High cloud bases are expected and with weak flow, will
promote pulse type convection with strong winds and locally heavy
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Hot dry weather is expected Friday though next week. The very
warm upper high will remain centered over Colorado, New Mexico and
northwest Texas. As such, there will be virtually no chance of
rain. The highest afternoon temperatures are expected over the
southeast Panhandle and the Rolling Plains where afternoon highs in
excess of 105 degrees will be likely starting this Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Continued VFR. TS currently between LBB and PVW will continue
decaying through the next hour. The next window for TS opens by
the afternoon with some models favoring the CDS area near a weak
boundary. Will keep thunder out of all TAFs as this threat is too
distant and uncertain at the moment.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...93