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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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674 FXUS64 KLUB 150522 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The current forecast is still on track for the rest of this afternoon. A cumulus field has developed in vicinity of the surface pressure trough where better low level convergence was located. Increased moisture and a short wave trough was seen approaching the area per water vapor imagery this afternoon. Isolated to scattered convective initiation is expected to be around 4-5pm with activity drifting eastward through the late afternoon into the early evening. Very high cloud bases will allow convection to produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. It is looking increasingly likely for scattered storms to develop on Thursday afternoon across the FA. A very weak trough axis around 700- 500mb was noted in model guidance approaching the area on Thursday afternoon. Little to no hints of this trough were present in the upper levels of the atmosphere as indicated by increasing heights around 250mb. This trough axis will cut across the region from southwest to northeast above an increasing low level convergent field. A cold front will be approaching from the north during the daytime stalling out somewhere around the central to southern Texas Panhandle. A surface pressure trough will extend southward near the Texas/New Mexico state line with a weak signal for a pre-frontal surface trough cutting across the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Very strong heating will occur across the area with temperatures near or above 100 degrees everywhere off the caprock and on many locations on the caprock. The atmosphere will be characterized by a typical pulse, summer type convective activity. Boundary layer mixing will reach up to around 650mb or so leading to inverted-V soundings and a dry sub-cloud layer. Deep layer mixed instability values will be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg under an uncapped atmosphere. High cloud bases are expected and with weak flow, will promote pulse type convection with strong winds and locally heavy rain. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Hot dry weather is expected Friday though next week. The very warm upper high will remain centered over Colorado, New Mexico and northwest Texas. As such, there will be virtually no chance of rain. The highest afternoon temperatures are expected over the southeast Panhandle and the Rolling Plains where afternoon highs in excess of 105 degrees will be likely starting this Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Continued VFR. TS currently between LBB and PVW will continue decaying through the next hour. The next window for TS opens by the afternoon with some models favoring the CDS area near a weak boundary. Will keep thunder out of all TAFs as this threat is too distant and uncertain at the moment. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...93