585
FXUS64 KLUB 172317
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
617 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

The upper ridge continues to spin over northeast New Mexico this
afternoon and is expected to meander east over West Texas by
tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to stay well above normal today,
tonight and tomorrow. Highs will be warmest off the Caprock with
temperatures ranging from 105 to 109 with a Heat Advisory in effect
for this area through 8 PM CDT tonight. A Heat Advisory is expected
to be issued tonight for tomorrow across the same area with once
again highs around 105 to 109 degrees. Near record high temperatures
are possible at CDS this afternoon and both LBB and CDS and
tomorrow. Tonight temperatures will remain mild in the upper 60s to
70s. However, any precipitation that develops this afternoon/evening
may help to lower these temperatures overnight.

Mid-level satellite water vapor imagery reveals an increase in
moisture across the forecast area with the remnants from
precipitation over southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.
Convective temperatures will be reached today with the widespread
triple digit heat. Visible satellite shows bubbling cumulus
developing across the forecast area with lift from thermals. In
addition, any lingering outflow boundaries from last night`s storms
may be the focus area for thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Wind shear values are weak around 20 knots or less, but there is
enough buoyancy to sustain a few isolated updrafts this afternoon
with SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg. Main threats with these
few storms would be strong to damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph with
DCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Any storms that develop should weaken
or diminish later this evening after sunset with a lack of forcing
under the dome of high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

No major changes were made to the long term forecast this
afternoon....long term begins Sunday evening with an mid-level
ridge parked over Generally west to southwesterly surface flow and
warm to hot temperatures will be common through the long term.
Given the warm temperatures and lack of deep moisture, convection
chances will be extremely limited through next weekend. High
temperatures in the 100s to 107F will be common each day through
Friday with lows barely falling into 70s. Towards mid week the
eastern Rolling Plains could see temperatures near advisory
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

An area of thunderstorms which developed between KLBB and KCDS has
delivered an outflow boundary which is moving toward the KLBB/KPVW
terminals. Wind speeds behind this boundary should provide for a
wind shift and increase to near 20KT for an hour or so at the
start of this TAF cycle. The thunderstorms themselves are trending
to move south and southwest and do not appear, at this time, to be
a threat for KLBB/KPVW aside from terminal vectoring. This
activity should start to wane after sunset but can surprise us
with longevity this time of year. Thereafter, VFR will prevail
with an outside chance of more thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...26