838
FXUS64 KLUB 301733
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

 - Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today through
   Tuesday with locally heavy rain possible.

 - Relatively cool temperatures are expected this week with daily
   thunderstorm chances continuing throughout the entire week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Monday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Another day, another forecast with shower and thunderstorm chances.
There are multiple upper level disturbances affecting CONUS today.
Firstly, high pressure remains over the Gulf Coast States. Secondly,
a trough will track eastward through the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys, reaching the Great Lakes region by the end of today.
Lastly, a deepening upper low off the coast of California will
slowly push on shore. Southerly surface flow will prevail for the
first half of the day but should shift to the north as the upper
trough pushes a front through the region by the time of peak
heating. Cooler air following the front and mostly cloudy skies in
the afternoon will keep keep temperatures below normal with highs in
the 80s mostly for areas on the Caprock. Temperatures off the
Caprock should reach low to mid 90s. Shower and thunderstorm chances
return this afternoon and should continue through the overnight
hours. Upper-level forcing and winds will be weak which should keep
any thunderstorms that develop sub-severe. However, storm motion is
expected to be slow therefore, the main threat will be locally heavy
rainfall with the possibility of flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The ongoing storm activity should tend to sag south late Monday
night following the boundary, only to redevelop Tuesday with moist
easterly flow and a weakness present in the height field aloft.
It`s uncertain how much instability we`ll be able to generate on
Tuesday due to the cooler temperatures and cloud cover, so the
activity may be more showery with less heavy rain potential. Weak
steering flow will persist though, so isolated heavy rain will
remain a concern.

The latest med-range progs suggest that the weakness in the
height field over West Texas will continue Wednesday and Thursday,
and with the monsoonal moisture plume also overhead, it appears
to be a good setup for additional rain chances both days. We may
see a period of higher PoPs late Thursday as a shortwave trough -
remnant of a West Coast upper low - slides across the Rockies and
over the High Plains. The other story will be the relatively cool
temperatures during the period, with highs mainly in the 80s, but
perhaps some locations across the north may only make the upper
70s one or more days, depending on the extent of cloud cover.

After this wave passes, forecast uncertainty grows Friday into
the weekend as the medium range guidance starts to diverge across
the lower 48. In general, there will likely be some increase in
ridging over the region following the passage of the trough, which
should bring temperatures back closer to seasonal norms for early
July, along with a lower (but probably not absent) chance of
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

This is a difficult forecast in terms of TS potential. Weakly-
forced TS expected through much of the forecast period, but there
will likely be periods of storms during this window rather than a
protracted period affecting the terminals. In addition, numerical
guidance is not handling the current activity across the region
well at all as showers and storms are already firing with the weak
trough moving southward through the forecast area. Will upgrade to
a TEMPO wording this afternoon into early evening and continue
with a PROB30 evening to early morning. Otherwise, light winds and
VFR conditions are expected with the possible exception of in and
near thunderstorms.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...07