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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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537 FXUS64 KLUB 151126 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 626 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Today holds one last shot for rain chances as we remain under a lingering plume of monsoonal moisture and weak troughing sandwiched between two upper highs. The surface pattern meanwhile features a trough that remains draped from eastern NM through the eastern TX Panhandle ahead of a weak cold front that will stall in our NW zones later this morning. These boundaries will coincide with the NE-SW moisture plume aloft and lead to another bout of afternoon and evening storms as convective temps remain well within reach. Anemic shear will favor slow cell motions with some locally heavy rain while skinny CAPE and tall inverted-v profiles foster a few marginally severe wind gusts until convection dwindles overnight. Models generally favor higher PoPs in our NE zones near the tail-end of the departing shortwave trough while areas farther west battle with rising heights/subsidence which should keep activity more isolated. On a related note, thicknesses creep higher today on the Caprock as the westernmost high nudges east from the Desert Southwest, so high temps should top out a bit above yesterday`s values save for the few locales that received soaking rains. Lows tonight shouldn`t be as mild as this morning owing to less residual cloud cover. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Forecast continuity remains intact with no change necessitated for this cycle. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-level pattern will feature the development of an Omega Block across North America as the core of the subtropical ridge centered over the southern Rocky Mountains begins to amplify. Farther west, a sharply cyclonic shortwave trough will dig southward along the coastal waters of Cascadia and become neutrally-tilted, resulting in the formation of a well-defined, mid- and high-level closed low. The shortwave trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to remain open, allowing for the center of the subtropical ridge to continue shifting eastward and over the southern Great Plains this weekend. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be located north of the CWA, with a diffuse surface trough expected to bisect the CWA. Cyclogenesis along the stalled front will be weak as the jet stream shifts poleward, resulting in a light, southerly breeze area-wide. A deeply-mixed boundary-layer will evolve once again, with PBL heights soaring into the mid-levels. Intense dry-bulbing will occur on Friday with high temperatures breaching 100 degrees across the Caprock and Rolling Plains. Increasing subsidence in the mid-levels as the eastern tranche of the subtropical ridge sloshes eastward, in addition to steep hydrolapsing above the LCL, will prevent the afternoon cu field from deepening; and the forecast remains dry for Friday. All suites of the global NWP guidance spectra are tightly spaced with the evolution of the forthcoming synoptic-scale pattern, and confidence is very high in a Omega Block developing over North America this weekend. This will cause the amplifying subtropical ridge to center over West Texas through at least the middle of next week. Geopotential heights could potentially reaching 600 dam with 850 mb temperatures between 32-33 deg C by the latter half of the weekend into the early part of the week. Triple-digit temperatures are forecast every day through the end of the period, with high temperatures in excess of 105 degrees expected for the Rolling Plains. Persistence forecasting yields similar surface conditions and full insolation each day throughout the extended period. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR with ISO-SCT TS developing this afternoon and evening, but remaining too brief at any one location for mention in the TAFs. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...93