537
FXUS64 KLUB 151126
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
626 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Today holds one last shot for rain chances as we remain under a
lingering plume of monsoonal moisture and weak troughing sandwiched
between two upper highs. The surface pattern meanwhile features a
trough that remains draped from eastern NM through the eastern TX
Panhandle ahead of a weak cold front that will stall in our NW zones
later this morning. These boundaries will coincide with the NE-SW
moisture plume aloft and lead to another bout of afternoon and
evening storms as convective temps remain well within reach. Anemic
shear will favor slow cell motions with some locally heavy rain
while skinny CAPE and tall inverted-v profiles foster a few
marginally severe wind gusts until convection dwindles overnight.
Models generally favor higher PoPs in our NE zones near the tail-end
of the departing shortwave trough while areas farther west battle
with rising heights/subsidence which should keep activity more
isolated. On a related note, thicknesses creep higher today on the
Caprock as the westernmost high nudges east from the Desert
Southwest, so high temps should top out a bit above yesterday`s
values save for the few locales that received soaking rains. Lows
tonight shouldn`t be as mild as this morning owing to less residual
cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Forecast continuity remains intact with no change necessitated for
this cycle. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-level
pattern will feature the development of an Omega Block across North
America as the core of the subtropical ridge centered over the
southern Rocky Mountains begins to amplify. Farther west, a sharply
cyclonic shortwave trough will dig southward along the coastal
waters of Cascadia and become neutrally-tilted, resulting in the
formation of a well-defined, mid- and high-level closed low. The
shortwave trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to remain open,
allowing for the center of the subtropical ridge to continue
shifting eastward and over the southern Great Plains this weekend.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be located north of
the CWA, with a diffuse surface trough expected to bisect the CWA.
Cyclogenesis along the stalled front will be weak as the jet stream
shifts poleward, resulting in a light, southerly breeze area-wide. A
deeply-mixed boundary-layer will evolve once again, with PBL heights
soaring into the mid-levels. Intense dry-bulbing will occur on
Friday with high temperatures breaching 100 degrees across the
Caprock and Rolling Plains. Increasing subsidence in the mid-levels
as the eastern tranche of the subtropical ridge sloshes eastward, in
addition to steep hydrolapsing above the LCL, will prevent the
afternoon cu field from deepening; and the forecast remains dry for
Friday.

All suites of the global NWP guidance spectra are tightly spaced
with the evolution of the forthcoming synoptic-scale pattern, and
confidence is very high in a Omega Block developing over North
America this weekend. This will cause the amplifying subtropical
ridge to center over West Texas through at least the middle of next
week. Geopotential heights could potentially reaching 600 dam with
850 mb temperatures between 32-33 deg C by the latter half of the
weekend into the early part of the week. Triple-digit temperatures
are forecast every day through the end of the period, with high
temperatures in excess of 105 degrees expected for the Rolling
Plains. Persistence forecasting yields similar surface conditions
and full insolation each day throughout the extended period.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

VFR with ISO-SCT TS developing this afternoon and evening, but
remaining too brief at any one location for mention in the TAFs.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93