841
FXUS64 KLUB 151913
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
213 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Thunderstorm chances in the near term and heat tomorrow are the foci
for the forecast this afternoon. Surface features early this
afternoon include a weak cold front draped across the northern Texas
Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma while a surface trough or
remnant outflow boundary extends from the northeastern Texas
Panhandle through the northwestern South Plains. Either or both of
these features may serve as a focus for convective initiation late
this afternoon as the air mass is progged to be weakly capped,
although some subsidence is evident in the progged soundings but
also in water vapor imagery as monsoonal moisture appears to be
thinning and shifting to the south and southeast. CAMs continue to
show the greatest concentration of storms across the southeastern
half of the Panhandle where both boundaries could come into play
while an extension to the southwest with more isolated convection is
plausible. The previous forecast handled this well and no changes to
weather/precip grids were made.

Upper level ridging to the west expand eastward on Friday with a
small increase in progged heights and thicknesses pointing to high
temperatures about two degrees warmer on average than today in line
with MOS and NBM. This will likely lead to the need for a Heat
Advisory for at least the northeastern part of the forecast area
with the hottest temperatures expected along and near the Prairie
Dog Town Fork with areas southward through the Rolling Plains not as
certain. Will let the overnight shift fine tune the forecast and
settle on the configuration of the product.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

There is not much to say in regards to the long term forecast other
than it is going to be abnormally hot for August. An omega blocking
pattern will set up over the CONUS with the upper ridge centered
over the Southern Plains. The center of the ridge will meander over
the Southern Plains for at least the next week. This will bring hot
temperatures for the next week and into possibly heat warning
criteria for the Rolling Plains. Current probabilities from the NBM
show around a ten percent chance of meeting or exceeding 110F off
the caprock for Tuesday and Wednesday. Looking beyond next week,
ensemble guidance does begin to diverge with regards to the strength
of the ridge but generally keep the ridge centered over the four
corners into the Southern Plains through the end of August.
Therefore, chances do not bode well for any type of significant cool
down in the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A weak surface trough extending from the eastern Texas Panhandle
through the northwestern South Plains to east-central New Mexico
will likely help focus some isolated to potentially scattered TS
development later this afternoon which will persist into the
evening hours. It still appears the greatest concentration of TS
will be across the eastern Panhandle, but confidence in timing,
areal extent, and evolution remain low. Will keep TS mention out
of the TAFs at this time, but that may need to change even before
the 00Z issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue. Check
density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...07