048
FXUS64 KLUB 160751 CCA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
251 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Eastward expansion of the upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
will continue today with gradual but still relatively subtle height
rises expected through the next 24 hours. Despite this evolution,
most synoptic guidance still depicts a ribbon of midlevel moisture
extending from SE NM through the TX Panhandle into NW OK which is
visible on water vapor channel imagery drifting SSE-ward early this
morning. Convective temperatures will once again be easily reached
later today which combined with this moisture and still minimal
inhibition should result in a few thunderstorms developing over the
southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. Coverage is
still not entirely certain given the eastward expansion of the
broader ridging aloft, but given a consistent signal in hi-res
guidance have added mentionable PoPs across the far southern TX
Panhandle this afternoon and evening with dry conditions favored
further south. A similar convective evolution to yesterday is
currently expected, with a rouge severe gust and brief downpour or
two not out of the question and activity largely diminishing after
sunset. Regarding temperatures today, have favored the warm end of
guidance given progged increases in layer thicknesses and deep
diurnal mixing. This results in forecast highs above 105 degrees for
locations off the Caprock, with a Heat Advisory consequently in
effect for this area this afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The heatwave shows no signs of stopping anytime soon as a dome of
high pressure shifts overhead this weekend before retreating
toward the Four Corners by the middle of next week. The worst of
the heat currently looks to peak on Sunday when Lubbock and
Childress will be within a few degrees of their record highs for
the day. For a list of daily record highs, please refer to the
Climate section below. Prospects for widespread 110+ highs off
the Caprock remain very low (10% or less) from probabilistic
ensemble suites, but at least four more days of Heat Advisories
are a good bet in this pattern.

Even with the intense heat, deep subsidence aloft will squash any
attempts at deep convection through much of next week. As the
core of the high departs into New Mexico early next week,
thicknesses edge lower with some potential for even cooler highs
per recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF which back low-level winds
more easterly behind a quasi-stationary front. For now, will stay
with the hotter and drier NBM that still affords sub-105 highs
for the Rolling Plains by the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF period with light southeast
winds overnight increasing slightly and becoming more southerly
after daybreak. Very slim chances exist for a few isolated TS
near PVW and CDS after 00z this evening, but will address this
potential more thoroughly in later TAF cycles.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Record high temperatures for 8/16 - 8/21:

LUBBOCKCHILDRESS
8/16104 (1943)107 (1943)
8/17107 (2023)110 (2023)
8/18105 (2023, 2019)110 (1945)
8/19103 (1994)109 (1943)
8/20103 (1943, 1930)111 (1943)
8/21103(1930)106 (1952)

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...30