Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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146 FXUS64 KLUB 191123 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 623 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The synoptic pattern continues to remain rather stagnant overall with rather expansive upper level ridging still centered over the Four Corners region and broad cyclonic flow aloft over most of the eastern CONUS. East-southeasterly surface flow early this morning will gradually veer more southerly by midday which combined with a modest increase in layer thicknesses will result in slightly warmer conditions today compared to yesterday as highs peak in the low to mid 90s. This should in turn result in convective temperatures being reached fairly easily which may result in another round of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Convective development seems most probable close to the TX/NM state line in proximity to a modest low level theta-e ridge and more robust midlevel moisture, and will keep mentionable PoPs confined to the western South Plains and SW TX Panhandle this afternoon with largely dry conditions elsewhere during the day today. Tonight, guidance is in good agreement depicting a mid/upper level shortwave disturbance tracking along the edge of the ridge aloft, which is expected to result in a complex of thunderstorms shifting southeastward out of SE CO and into the TX/OK Panhandles overnight. North-northwesterly steering flow will be marginally stronger tonight than earlier this week which should allow the gradually decaying complex of storms to make it to the far southern TX Panhandle and northern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains late tonight. A few strong wind gusts and brief downpours would be possible with this activity especially over the southern TX Panhandle, but severe weather still looks unlikely at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The upper level pattern will remain relatively constant through at least the first half of next week. Upper level ridging will dominate the western CONUS with the center of the ridge meandering across the southwestern US. The eastern CONUS will be characterized by broad troughing. Both of these features will place West Texas under varying periods of northwest to meridional flow. Any day in particular to pick out as having higher precipitation chances is a futile effort at this time due to the expected weak nature of short wave troughs in the summer time as well as any potential convectively influenced boundaries lingering around the region. There is some agreement in model guidance of increased mid and upper level flow this weekend possibly increasing confidence in the chances of precipitation. This type of convection will be capable of primarily producing isolated severe wind gusts and isolated heavy rainfall/flooding. With the general lack of large scale lift, forecasting the exact location of this phenomena is difficult beyond 24 hours in the future. Another result of the increase precipitation chances will be cooler temperatures around five to ten degrees below seasonal averages. Diurnal convective chances will begin to wane during the second half of next week as a large scale trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and breaks down the oppressive upper level ridge. Temperatures will trend upwards during this time as well with increasing heights/thickness values. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR will continue at all TAF sites. A few SHRA near PVW early this morning should dissipate over the next couple of hours. Some additional isolated TS may develop well west of PVW and LBB this afternoon, but direct terminal impacts look unlikely at this time. More widespread TS are possible late tonight, but confidence is much too low for specific TAF mention at this issuance. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...30