100
FXUS64 KLUB 191708
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1208 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The synoptic pattern continues to remain rather stagnant overall
with rather expansive upper level ridging still centered over the
Four Corners region and broad cyclonic flow aloft over most of the
eastern CONUS. East-southeasterly surface flow early this morning
will gradually veer more southerly by midday which combined with a
modest increase in layer thicknesses will result in slightly warmer
conditions today compared to yesterday as highs peak in the low to
mid 90s. This should in turn result in convective temperatures being
reached fairly easily which may result in another round of isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. Convective development seems most
probable close to the TX/NM state line in proximity to a modest low
level theta-e ridge and more robust midlevel moisture, and will keep
mentionable PoPs confined to the western South Plains and SW TX
Panhandle this afternoon with largely dry conditions elsewhere
during the day today. Tonight, guidance is in good agreement
depicting a mid/upper level shortwave disturbance tracking along the
edge of the ridge aloft, which is expected to result in a complex of
thunderstorms shifting southeastward out of SE CO and into the TX/OK
Panhandles overnight. North-northwesterly steering flow will be
marginally stronger tonight than earlier this week which should
allow the gradually decaying complex of storms to make it to the far
southern TX Panhandle and northern portions of the South Plains and
Rolling Plains late tonight. A few strong wind gusts and brief
downpours would be possible with this activity especially over the
southern TX Panhandle, but severe weather still looks unlikely at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The upper level pattern will remain relatively constant through at
least the first half of next week. Upper level ridging will dominate
the western CONUS with the center of the ridge meandering across the
southwestern US. The eastern CONUS will be characterized by broad
troughing. Both of these features will place West Texas under
varying periods of northwest to meridional flow. Any day in
particular to pick out as having higher precipitation chances is a
futile effort at this time due to the expected weak nature of short
wave troughs in the summer time as well as any potential
convectively influenced boundaries lingering around the region.
There is some agreement in model guidance of increased mid and upper
level flow this weekend possibly increasing confidence in the
chances of precipitation. This type of convection will be capable of
primarily producing isolated severe wind gusts and isolated heavy
rainfall/flooding. With the general lack of large scale lift,
forecasting the exact location of this phenomena is difficult beyond
24 hours in the future. Another result of the increase precipitation
chances will be cooler temperatures around five to ten degrees below
seasonal averages. Diurnal convective chances will begin to wane
during the second half of next week as a large scale trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest and breaks down the oppressive upper
level ridge. Temperatures will trend upwards during this time as
well with increasing heights/thickness values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR with light S winds through tonight. Outside chance exists for
ISO TS later today mainly W of LBB and PVW, with slightly better
chances after midnight area wide as TS spread southeast from the
TX Panhandle. All indications suggest this latter round of TS
should be withering by this point, so a northerly wind shift may
be all that impacts the terminals during the pre-dawn hours.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93