Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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099 FXUS63 KLSX 152344 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 644 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Tuesday should begin the much anticipated break from the heat for most of the area. However, there is still potential for 105+ heat index across the eastern Ozarks therefore the Heat Advisory remains in effect for that part of the area. - A slow-moving cold front will trigger several waves of showers and thunderstorms from overnight tonight through Wednesday. Some of the storms late tonight could produce damaging winds and large hail. Flash flooding will also be possible, mainly from storms Tuesday night. - Much cooler and drier air will move into the region behind the cold front which will bring us several days of below normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Key messages: The forecast through at least Tuesday night will hinge on where thunderstorms develop and move tonight, and during the day on Tuesday. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop over Iowa or southern Minnesota this afternoon/evening and quickly grow upscale into a linear MCS. Forward propagating Corfidi Vectors indicate the MCS should move generally east-southeast tonight, and lay down a strong outflow boundary that will also have some southward push. MUCAPE ahead of the outflow boundary is forecast to be in excess of 2000 J/Kg across northern Missouri into central Illinois, and deterministic guidance shows a 40kt west-southwest low level jet blowing across the boundary. The direction of the jet is at about a 30 degree angle to the boundary...but it should produce enough lift to generate additional convection on the boundary itself. Timing the boundary into the northern portion of our forecast area is difficult at best, but the current best estimate is around midnight tonight. Determining how much convection the outflow will bring with it into our area is also very difficult, but isolated to scattered storms is plausible given the jet`s less than favorable orientation to the boundary. While a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible, the storms should be elevated above a strong inversion that will be difficult for downdrafts to punch through. There could also be a few large hail stones with the strongest storms. The strength and coverage of the storms that move into our area will determine how far south the outflow boundary penetrates into Missouri and southern Illinois, and that will determine where convection persists or redevelops on Tuesday. The CAMs vary pretty widely on the position of the boundary as do the deterministic models. However, the general consensus is that it will make it down to around the I-70 corridor. Some models continue to produce convection through the day, some have convection weaken and dissipate, only to redevelop storms in the afternoon/evening along the boundary. The NAM even fires up what looks like a severe MCS and drives it through central Missouri into the St. Louis Metro area Tuesday afternoon...but it`s an outlier and I do not expect this scenario to occur. Going with the consensus again...a few showers and storms will probably linger into mid-late morning over the area, then dissipate and redevelop during the afternoon after we reach peak heating. Models are indicating MLCAPE values in excess of 3500 J/Kg, but the shear could be somewhat weak at only 20-30kts, so a few storms could be severe, but widespread/well organized severe thunderstorms do not appear likely at this time. The afternoon/early evening storms will move the effective boundary again, and the low level jet will once again increase to around 30- 40kts across the boundary. Weak shear and lowered buoyancy during the late evening and overnight will keep the resulting storms from becoming too strong, but the warm cloud depth will be above 13kft, and P-WAT values are now a little higher than previous forecasts at 2-2.5 inches. Add to that slow storm motion and training and the possibility for flash flooding becomes very real. Where the highest threat will be is still very uncertain, and will depend on where the effective boundary settles Tuesday night. It is due to this uncertainty that we have not issued a Flood Watch at this point. Carney && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The preponderance of guidance is now indicating that Tuesday night`s convection will push the effective boundary into southern Missouri or even farther south by Wednesday morning. However a short wave that looks suspiciously like an MCV moves slowly around the base of the long wave trough Wednesday. This produces more rain north of the boundary across at least the eastern Ozarks and potentially as far north as the I-70 corridor. About 60% of the LREF members have measurable precip across the eastern Ozarks Wednesday, so lingering showers appear likely in this area, but the trends are for a dryer Wednesday, so these PoPs may ultimately prove to be too high. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front on Thursday, and the forecast at least through Saturday is for dry weather and below normal temperatures. Temperatures warm a bit by early next week as the airmass modifies and a slight chance for some showers also returns due to increasing low level moisture and the presence of the persistent long wave trough over the Central U.S. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 There is a good deal of uncertainty with this new set of TAFs centered around thunderstorm chances later this evening through mid-morning on Tuesday. A large thunderstorm complex over IA is expected to largely track to the east and to the north of the region, but the far southern end will sink more southeastward along with the accompanying outflow boundary. Either of these could impact KUIN after 03z, and if the boundary generates new storms as it moves into northern MO then there would be a threat of thunderstorms at KCOU/KJEF as well as the St. Louis terminals overnight into Tuesday morning. I have a mixture of VCTS and PROB30 in the 08/09z-15z time frame when impacts would be most likely if this scenario occurs. A lingering boundary and eventually advancing cold front will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Tuesday evening, largely to I-70 southward including the terminals in this area, however given the uncertainty I have not included any mention at this forecast time. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Crawford MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO. IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Bond IL- Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Randolph IL. && $$ WFO LSX