Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
074 FGUS63 KKRF 231439 ESPLRP LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1137 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2024 ******************************************************** ********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ********* ******************************************************** IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :REPUBLICAN R AT RIVERTON NE NO.2 RVRN1 9.0 10.5 13.5 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT GUIDE ROCK NE 2S GUIN1 12.5 15.0 17.0 | <5 5 15 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT HARDY NE 1SW HDYN1 11.0 13.5 15.5 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT SCANDIA KS SNDK1 10.0 13.0 15.0 | 7 <5 9 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :BUFFALO CR AT JAMESTOWN KS 1N JMSK1 16.0 19.0 35.0 | 8 15 28 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT CONCORDIA KS 1N CNKK1 15.0 18.0 30.0 | 7 6 12 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :ELK CR AT CLYDE KS CLDK1 14.0 22.0 36.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT CLAY CENTER KS 1S CYCK1 15.0 21.0 28.0 | 11 19 36 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 LEGEND HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT) CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0727 Z DH12 /DC2407230437/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH .B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :REPUBLICAN R RVRN1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 5.4/ 5.1/ 6.6/ 6.9/ GUIN1 3.9/ 4.7/ 5.6/ 10.0/ 9.6/ 10.7/ 11.2/ HDYN1 1.4/ 2.1/ 3.0/ 5.4/ 5.3/ 6.3/ 6.8/ SNDK1 1.2/ 1.7/ 2.7/ 5.1/ 4.8/ 5.9/ 11.8/ :BUFFALO CR JMSK1 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 11.6/ 10.6/ 12.1/ 18.7/ :REPUBLICAN R CNKK1 5.0/ 5.7/ 6.4/ 11.0/ 10.0/ 12.5/ 16.2/ :ELK CR CLDK1 4.6/ 4.6/ 5.3/ 7.7/ 7.6/ 8.1/ 9.0/ :REPUBLICAN R CYCK1 7.2/ 8.0/ 9.5/ 13.6/ 12.9/ 15.2/ 17.9/ .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0727 Z DH12 /DC2407230437/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH .B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :REPUBLICAN R RVRN1 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ GUIN1 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ HDYN1 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.5/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ SNDK1 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.5/ -0.2/ -0.1/ -0.2/ -0.2/ :BUFFALO CR JMSK1 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ :REPUBLICAN R CNKK1 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2/ :ELK CR CLDK1 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ :REPUBLICAN R CYCK1 7.0/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.6/ .END $$