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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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303 FXUS66 KLOX 161757 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1057 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...16/225 AM. A high pressure system over the region will weaken and move east over the coming days as an upper-level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. A cooling trend with increased onshore flow will continue through the weekend, then some warming will develop over the early half of next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...16/850 AM. ***UPDATE*** The forecast is well on-track, and no changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ***From Previous Discussion*** Very benign weather will continue across Srn Ca for the 3 day short period. Over the next three days an upper high over the CA/AZ border will shift to the east while at the same time an upper low to the N will move southward. The effects over SRN CA will be a switch to SW flow aloft that will strengthen with time. 594 dam hgts this morning will fall to 588 dam by Saturday afternoon and then rebound slightly Sun. At the sfc there will be weak to moderate onshore flow to the east and weak occasionally offshore flow in the N/S direction. Marine layer cloud coverage is a little more robust that it has been over the last few nights. A weak eddy has spun up and there are some low clouds moving from Long Beach into the Oxnard. Low clouds should increase further tonight into Saturday morning as hgts lower. The low cloud coverage will shrink Sunday morning as the offshore flow from the north increases slightly. The onshore push to the east will be a little stronger today and this will cool the coasts a few degrees. Northerly flow however will bring warmer air into the interior where max temps will warm 3 to 4 degrees. Look for 2 to 4 locally 5 to 6 degrees of cooling Saturday as the hgts lower and onshore increases. Less marine layer, slightly higher hgts and a stronger offshore push from the north will bring a little warming to the area Sunday. Last evenings Sundowner event did not live up to expectations with gusts almost all in the 30 to 40 mph range. The winds will be weaker tonight and there is not threat of advisory winds. Monsoonal thunderstorm activity is not favored through the weekend, although the outer edge of a moisture surge may bring some high clouds to the region tomorrow afternoon. This moisture is expected to be too elevated to increase thunderstorm chances, which continues to be well under 10 percent. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...16/309 AM. The latest deterministic mdls and ensembles are in good agreement on the general upper level pattern for the xtnd period. The upper high will strengthen and move to the west on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday a PAC NW trof will move into the state and push the upper high back to the east. Hgts will climb each day through Tuesday and will peak around 595 dam on Tuesday afternoon. to 595 dam. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming each day. By Tuesday afternoon the only 70s will be right at the beaches with 80s and lower 90s across the rest of the coasts. The vlys will see max temps from 92 to 104 degrees. There will be plenty of triple digit heat across the far interior and lower mtn elevations as well. These temps are about 6 degrees above normal. While it will be warm these temps will only pose a moderate heat risk. There is a 15 percent chc that the current temp forecast is too low and there would be a need for heat products across the interior and some of the vlys. Lowering hgts and onshore flow will arrive Wed and continue into Thu. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling each day. The significant high pressure will likely suppress most if not all marine layer clouds on Mon and Tue. The lowering hgts will bring an more conducive environment for low cloud formation Wed and Thu mornings. Monsoonal moisture transport into the region becomes a bit more likely on Tuesday. Even so, at this point the chance of actual convection remains less than 10 percent. && .AVIATION...16/1756Z. At 1646Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 2700 ft with a temperature of 24 deg C. High confidence in 18Z TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF. Moderate confidence in Los Angeles County coastal TAFs. Arrival of cigs may be off +/- 3 hours from current forecasts. Cig/vsby restrictions may bounce between VFR-IFR between 04Z and 10Z. There is a 30% chance cigs arrive by 04Z as IFR. Low confidence in remaining coastal TAFs. Arrival of cigs may be off +/- 4 hours from currents forecast and minimum flight cat may be off by 1 cat at any time after cigs arrive. There is a 30% chance of VLIFR conditions at KSMX and KOXR at any point after cigs arrive. There is a 20% chance KSBP remains VFR thru the period. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance that cigs below 010 arrive by 04Z and a 20% chance of cigs below 005 with vsbys as low as 4SM between 09Z and 15Z. Flight cats may bounce between VFR-IFR, especially between 04Z and 09Z. There is a 30% chance of VFR conditions by 16Z. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF. && .MARINE...16/928 AM. For the offshore waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island (the outer waters), high confidence in SCA level winds for the two southern zones through Monday. For the furthest northern zone, high confidence in SCA level winds through tomorrow morning, with moderate confidence in SCA level winds continuing thru Monday. For the nearshore waters off the Central Coast, moderate confidence in SCA level winds through this evening. Moderate confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through the Monday. For the Santa Barbara Channel, high confidence in winds below SCA levels through Saturday. Moderate confidence of SCA level winds occuring in the Western Portion of the channel in the afternoon thru late night hours on Saturday. Then, high confidence in winds remaining below SCA levels Sunday thru Monday. In the eastern portion, high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA level through the Monday. For the southern inner waters, high confidence in conditions staying under SCA levels through Monday. With a shallow marine layer, there is moderate confidence in patchy dense fog with visibilities under 1 nautical mile effecting the Central Coast waters and southern inner waters tonight thru tomorrow morning. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/Cohen AVIATION...Lewis MARINE...Lewis/Kittell/Sirard SYNOPSIS...Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox