195
FXUS63 KLMK 110505
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
105 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower
    humidity.

*   Mostly dry weather through the first half of next week with
    precipitation chances gradually increasing mid-to-late next week.

*   Temperatures will gradually warm next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Another fall-like night as temps have already dropped into the 60s
in some of the more rural areas, with lower/mid 70s still observed
in Louisville and Bowling Green. Dewpoints in the 50s leave us a
fair amount of room to drop, but the one source of uncertainty is
the mid/high cloud cover trying to push in from Missouri and
southern Illinois. Not expecting the cloud deck to hold up very
well, but we won`t stay completely clear either. Current forecast
mins from the mid 50s to around 60 look good, but we could see some
pockets of lower 50s in the more sheltered valleys of the Bluegrass
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

The short term is very quiet. High pressure will continue to
move into the region from the west over the next two days, which
brings mostly clear skies along with calm to light winds. Temperatures
in our area will remain cooler than normal, with highs in the
low 80s. Dry conditions are also going to continue due to
limited moisture in our region. In the overnight hours, we could
have some convective debris clouds over the region from
dissipating storms over Missouri.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Early Next Week...

High pressure will continue in the region from Sunday evening to
Tuesday morning. Temperatures will still be below normal with highs
in the 80s and lows in the low 60s with dry conditions. Broad
ridging over the southern CONUS will continue to strengthen. The
Ohio Valley will be positioned on the perimeter of the broad
ridging. Northwesterly flow aloft will begin to settle into the
region. Within this upper-level flow, weak shortwave troughs will
move into the region, increasing lift. However, surface flow will
remain out of the North and limit moisture in the column. Due to
these conditions, we are not expecting any PoPs. Wouldn`t rule out a
stray shower, but mostly dry.

Mid-Late Next Week...

Ridging aloft will begin to shift eastward and increase heights over
the Ohio Valley. Moisture will return to the region via
southwesterly low level flow. The Ohio Valley will still be under
northwesterly flow aloft, with daily shortwaves moving over the
region. Daily opportunities for lift to present moisture and
increasing instability will bring increased chances for showers and
storms towards the end of the week. The end of next week is
something to monitor, given a MCS-like setup. Temperatures will
increase each day next week back to normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the current forecast period.
An area of mid- and high-level clouds will move across the region
between now and late morning; cloud bases are generally expected to
remain at or above 10 kft. During the daytime hours today, a few
diurnal cu may develop, with high pressure located just NW of the
area facilitating light north and northwest winds, with speeds
generally 10 kt or less. Tonight, the end of the current forecast
period is expected to bring light and variable winds as high
pressure will be centered overhead.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...CSG