576
FXUS63 KLMK 241049
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
649 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...Update Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat Advisory extended through Wednesday due to multiple days of
  heat indices near 100 to 105 and heat indices only falling into
  the mid to upper 70s at night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

The stagnant weather pattern continues for another day thanks to
both the strong, stationary upper and surface high over the area. It
will be mostly dry with another day of hot temperatures climbing
into the low/mid 90s, dew points near the mid 70s, resulting in
widespread heat index values in the low 100s to around 105.

While there is limited forcing, there remains plenty of instability
so not going to rule out isolated showers/storms like we`ve seen the
last couple of afternoons. Given the uncertainty of placement,
decided to go with a slight chance (under 20 percent) for
precipitation in the afternoon.

Tonight, if we see any showers/thunderstorms they will diminish with
the setting sun. Skies are expected to clear and winds will remain
light but little relief is expected with the warm overnight lows in
the low/mid 70s with upper 70s in the urban heat island locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Heat Advisory will continue into Wednesday evening as we expected
another similar day of temperatures in the 90s, dew points in the
mid 70s and heat index values again in the low to mid triple digits.
This would make it the 4th to 5th consecutive day of 100-105 heat
index values for some locations going back to the weekend. This was
the primary reason for the Heat Advisory. There could also be
isolated to potentially scattered showers/storms again in the
afternoon.

Little overall change is expected in the extended forecast for the
end of the week through the weekend. Gulf moisture will continue to
stream in from south thanks to southerly flow around the surface
high over the southeastern US. We do expect the upper ridge to
flatten out and heights to decrease some as a weak shortwave trough
works over the northern peripheral of the ridge. The overall
forecast remains mainly dry and very warm but temperatures and heat
index values look to become a little less hot. Highs will in the
upper 80s to low 90s and dew points in the low/mid 70s. No real
widespread rain chances through the end of the week, but we could
have diurnally driven scattered to isolated activity through the
weekend.

Models still want to show a cold front by early next week that could
possibly bring some relief.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Other than dense fog at RGA at the start of the period, the rest of
the forecast is VFR. Large upper and sfc high continues to keep us
mostly dry, hot and humid with just sct cu later in the afternoon.
With that we could get isolated showers and storms to develop but
the likelihood is under 20 percent. Winds will also remain generally
light out of the SW.

If we get any clouds or precipitation this afternoon, that will
dissipate and clear with the loss of daytime heating. With clear
skies, we could see some fog develop tomorrow morning from LEX-RGA-
BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN