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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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015 FXUS63 KLMK 132259 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 659 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chances of storms on Thursday and Friday. Isolated strong or severe storms are possible. * Temperatures will return to more typical summertime levels by mid-to-late week, but cool slightly behind a front this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Afternoon satellite imagery and observations show partly to mostly sunny skies across the region. Temperatures were in the upper 70s to the lower 80s, with the warm spots being over in the northeast part of the state near Ashland. In the near term, no significant weather is expected. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s with readings falling into the upper 70s by mid-evening. For tonight, quiet weather is expected as northwest flow aloft will continue across the region. With high pressure moving through the Great Lakes, another dry night of weather is expected. Overnight lows will fall into the lower-mid 60s for most locations, a few of the typical cool spots may get into the upper 50s. Northwest flow will continue across the region on Wednesday as mid- level heights rise slightly. This should lead to more sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures. Generally speaking, highs look to warm into the 82-87 degree range Wednesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Wednesday Night - Friday Night... Upper-level ridging will move over the Ohio Valley Wednesday night through Thursday. As heights increase, temperatures will also increase back to normal levels. At the surface, high pressure will move off to the east and surface flow will veer southerly allowing moisture to return to the region on Thursday. PWATs will increase to around 2 inches by Thursday afternoon. Over the northern Plains and upper Midwest, troughing will dig south leading to the next system to move through the region. As the system moves east, cloud coverage and precipitation chances will increase. Showers and storms are possible Thursday late afternoon through Friday, after the cold front passes through the region. Given modest instability and ample moisture, will likely see some storms capable of gusty-damaging winds and heavy rain. Shear is limited-weak, therefore, not expecting great organization of storms. Weekend - Early Next Week... As the front moves through the region, precip chances will decrease, winds will shift to a northwesterly direction, dew points will drop, and temperatures will dip just slightly below normal. Expect to see these conditions remain over the region through the remainder of the long term. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 659 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Forecast remains relatively unchanged through the TAF forecast period. Continued VFR flight categories through the forecast. Likely going to see some high clouds with light to variable winds through the period thanks to a vast area of sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...SRM AVIATION...BTN