Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
612 FXUS65 KLKN 141001 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 301 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler today with temperatures in most locations only a couple to a few degrees above normal. Mostly cloudy this afternoon with a 10 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Monday should be the coolest day of the week, with near-normal temperatures along with a 5 to 25 percent chance of thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night. High pressure centered over the four-corners region today with mid-level moisture continuing to spread up across central and northern Nevada. Weak instability today will help produce thunderstorms across much of the CWA. NBM has southern Lander and Eureka counties along with the northern-most portion of Northern Nye county pegged with a 25 to 40 percent chance of TS activity today, with a 10 to 25 percent chance of TS for the rest of the CWA. Temperatures will trend cooler today with highs only a few degrees above normal. Mostly cloudy again Monday afternoon, however chances of thunderstorms will be a little lower, generally 5 to 15 percent over the NW portion of the CWA and a 15 to 30 percent chance across central and NE portions of the CWA. Highs trend a couple degrees cooler Monday afternoon with temperatures near-normal. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday An area of high pressure will remain over the Four Corners of the Untied States Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will allow monsoonal moisture to continue to stream northward into Eastern Nevada. Thunderstorm probabilities Tuesday afternoon will vary from 25 to 35 percent in Southern Eureka, Southern Lander, and White Pine Counties to 15 to 25 percent in Northern Eureka, Northern Lander, and Elko Counties. The aforementioned anticyclone should weaken somewhat Wednesday through Friday, before retrograding westward next weekend. Be that as it may, there is still a slight chance of thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada each afternoon Wednesday into next weekend. A warming trend is expected Tuesday through Friday. By Friday afternoon, high temperatures will be around five degrees above normal for this time of year. Temperatures will remain above seasonal values Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through mid-morning. Mid to upper-level moisture will move into central and northeastern Nevada, allowing for a 10% to 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon at all terminals. Gusty outflow winds up to 40 knots, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be the primary threats starting after 19Z. Outside of storms, breezy winds from the W-NW expected to increase to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. Storms are expected to diminish by the mid to late evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER...Cooler today with a mix of isolated to scattered thunderstorms that are expected to begin as dry this afternoon and trend wetter later this afternoon and evening. Confidence is relatively low however on how much precipitation to expect in thunderstorms today. The Red Flag Warnings for dry thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds remain in effect across all zones today. Temperatures continue to trend cooler into Monday, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning until 1 AM PDT Monday Central Elko County... Central Nevada-Toiyabe...Eastern Elko County...Humboldt County-Quinn...Northern Nye County-Mojave...Southeastern Humboldt County and northern Lander County...W Elko County, N Eureka and Lander Counties N of I80...White Pine and Northeast Nye Counties. && $$ 96/86/90/96