537
FXUS65 KLKN 161023
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
323 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A rather expansive upper-level high pressure system
will remain spinning over the four-corners region through the mid
portions of this week. Sufficient subtropical moisture will bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon,
especially across central and eastern Nevada. Look for high
temperatures a little closer to normal with readings in the low
to mid 90s today. However, these highs will gradually warm
through the latter portion of the workweek with readings once
again approaching 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night. Skies are generally
mostly clear with some low to mid-clouds over central and east-
central Nevada this morning. Main synoptic features include a
large upper level high pressure system rotating over the four-corners
area today with a weak upper trough in the eastern Pacific, west
of California. Precipitable water will remain around two-thirds of
an inch or so with storm motions of around 5 to 10 knots. For this
afternoon, expecting pop-up afternoon isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly across central and north-central
Nevada today. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s.
Winds will be light though convective outflow gusts to 40 mph are
possible with any storm. For tonight, expect a mix of clouds with
sprinkles possible in the north. Overnight lows will be in the 50s
and 60s.

By Wednesday and Wednesday night, the upper level ridge remain
fairly stationary over the four-corners region. This will keep a
south to southwest flow over northern and central Nevada. There
will be some modification to the airmass as precipitable water
values hover between 0.50 and 0.67 inches. Expect a mix of wet and
dry storms over eastern and northeastern Nevada for the afternoon.
High temperatures will inch up a degree or two but maintain in the
upper 80s to near 100 degrees over the region. Winds will
continue to remain light outside of storms with gusts to 40 mph
due to convective outflows. Expect the weather to quiet down for
the night period with lows again in the 50s and 60s.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday

An upper-level area of high pressure will remain over the Four
Corners of the Untied States Thursday and Thursday night. This
will allow monsoonal moisture to continue to stream northward into
Eastern Nevada. Thunderstorm probabilities Thursday afternoon will
vary from 20 to 30 percent in Southern Eureka, White Pine, and
Elko Counties to 10 to 20 percent in Southern Lander County. The
aforementioned anticyclone aloft will retrograde westward Friday.
This upper-level area of high pressure should be centered over
Eastern Nevada this weekend into early next week. Be that as it
may, there is still a slight chance of thunderstorms in Eastern
Nevada each afternoon Friday into early next week.

A warming trend is expected Thursday through Saturday. By Saturday
afternoon, high temperatures will be around five degrees above
normal for this time of year. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal values Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for
heat-related illnesses each afternoon Saturday through Monday.
Heat Advisories may be required for portions of the Northern and
Central Nevada Saturday through Monday. Although heat events like
this are relatively common, heat-related impacts are possible for
those new to the area if simple precautions are not taken. Plan to
take action to reduce time outdoors, drink plenty of water, and
remain in air-conditioned buildings. This heat could begin to
abate Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through mid-morning. Mid
level monsoonal moisture will allow for a 10% to 30% chance for
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon at KWMC, KEKO, KELY, and
KBAM. Gusty outflow winds up to 40+ knots, blowing dust,
lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.
Storms are expected to weaken by the mid to late evening hours.
Outside of storms, breezy winds from the W-SW at 5-10 knots with
gusts to 20 knots possible at KELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Upper level ridge will maintain a position over
the four-corners area today through tomorrow. This will allow for
a south to southwest flow to continue over the region with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. WInds
will generally be light though convective outflows to 40 mph are
possible with any storm. Precipitable water values are expected to
dip slightly to around around a half to two-thirds of an inch
Wednesday and storm motions increase to about 10-15 knots, so
expecting more of a mix of wet and dry storms tomorrow. Do not
believe critical fire weather conditions will be met however. A
warming trend will commence as the upper level ridge begins to
retrograde westward and take up a position across southwestern
Utah by Friday. Temperatures will climb to the 90s to near 100
degrees as a result.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/87/90/86