648
FXUS65 KLKN 131015
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
315 AM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Well above normal temperatures continue today with
highs in the 90s to low 100s. There will also be a 10 to 25
percent chance of thunderstorms today. A few degrees cooler on
Sunday, however thunderstorm chances rise to 10 to 40 percent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. High pressure drifts eastward
today centering over the four corners region with well above
normal high temperatures continuing. Increasing instability
across much of northern and central NV this afternoon coupled with
increasing amounts of mid-level moisture building up under the
exiting ridge will lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Inverted V soundings along with
moderately high DCAPE values in the 1500-2000J/kg range favor
microbursts this afternoon and evening with gusts to 50mph
possible. Showers and thunderstorms diminish into the mid to late
evening hours. Overnight lows remain well above normal. Sunday as
the center of high pressure exits a little farther to the east
thunderstorm chances will diminish across the western-most portion
of the CWA, with continued thunderstorm activity across central
and eastern portions. Increasing mid-level moisture on Sunday will
help to lower cloud bases from 15-16k Saturday down to around 12k
feet Sunday. This would favor more rainfall reaching the ground
and likely reduce any downburst wind gusts Sunday into the
35-45mph range. High temperatures Sunday will also begin to trend
lower, with most locations 2-6 degrees cooler on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.
An area of high pressure will remain over the Four Corners of the
United States Monday and Monday night. This will allow monsoonal
moisture to continue to stream northward into Eastern Nevada.
Thunderstorm probabilities Monday afternoon will vary from 30 to
40 percent in Eureka and White Pine Counties to 20 to 30 percent
in Elko County. The aforementioned anticyclone should weaken
somewhat Tuesday into next weekend. Be that as it may, there is
still a slight chance of thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada each
afternoon Tuesday into next weekend.

High temperatures Monday afternoon will be near normal for this
time of year. A warming trend is expected Tuesday through Friday.
By Friday afternoon, maximum temperatures will be around five
degrees above their typical values for the latter half of July.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal values Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through mid-morning. Mid
to upper-level moisture and clouds (10kft and above) will move
into central and northeastern Nevada, allowing for widespread
convection this afternoon. Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms
are possible across KTPH, KELY, KEKO, and KBAM. KWMC will see a
5-10% chance of light rain showers or virga. Gusty outflow winds
and lightning will be the primary threats starting after 19Z.
Breezy winds from the S-SW expected to affect most TAF sites
during the afternoon, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to
20-25 knots. Storms are expected to diminish by the mid to late
evening hours.

KBAM is AMD not SKED due to communication issue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near-record heat continues across much of the
region today with high pressure centered over and east of NV.
Mid-level moisture increases under the ridge today with isolated
to scattered dry thunderstorms and gusty down drafts expected,
mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Some uncertainty on
how much rain to expect with any thunderstorms as precipitable
water values reach 3/4 of an inch or higher in some areas. As such
any stronger cells that may develop today could produce wetting
rains. A few degrees cooler on Sunday, with continued concerns for
isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms across most of the
region. The Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for isolated to
scattered dry thunderstorms in all zones today through Sunday.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening Humboldt
County...Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...
Southeastern Elko County...Southern Lander County and Southern
Eureka County.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM PDT Monday
Central Elko County...Central Nevada-Toiyabe...Eastern Elko
County...Humboldt County-Quinn...Northern Nye County-Mojave...
Southeastern Humboldt County and northern Lander County...W Elko
County, N Eureka and Lander Counties N of I80...White Pine and
Northeast Nye Counties.

Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening Northern
Elko County.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening South Central Elko
County...Southwest Elko County.

&&

$$

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