Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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725 FXUS64 KLIX 152355 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 655 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night, generally a summertime pattern will continue. Scattered daily showers and storms will be possible, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. PoPs are not high enough though to hinder the heat enough for tomorrow though and likely into Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s with heat index values 108 to 112 degrees forecast. In terms of the criteria, we will be pretty close to 108 degrees heat index values generally with pockets of higher feels like temps likely. But, the overnight lows will be right around 80 degrees for much of the area again tonight, which will add to the heat stress tomorrow. And that combined with the prolonged (multiple days now) heat, will contribute to the heat stress and increase the impacts felt by people. Consequently, we have issued a heat advisory for tomorrow for our entire area except immediate coastal Louisiana from 10am through 7pm CT. Additionally, in urban areas, it is important to note that the heat will linger into the evening hours longer than rural areas, so the heat stress will also linger a bit longer than most places. People should take precautions to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks when working outside! These temperatures and heat index values will likely continue into Wednesday, so heat advisories may be needed for Wednesday as well, but that will be looked at more closely on the next forecast cycle. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Thursday through the weekend, a boundary will be moving into the area and lingering for a few days, increasing rain chances across the area. Looking at the models, generally numerous showers and storms will be possible Thursday through the weekend, especially during peak daytime heating hours as storms fire up along the boundary. These storms will have the potential for training, given the low wind shear. And the PW values are around 2", which is above the 75th percentile for the SPC sounding climatology. As a result, the rainfall will be quite efficient (as has been the case most of the summer), but with a higher percentage of coverage (more of the area spatially will see storms). This combined with the possibility of training, given environmental parameters, means that the risk for flash flooding and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern with these storms. Some lightning and gusty winds (30-40mph) will be possible, but for most people, the main concern will be the potential for flash flooding. This is something that is still a little uncertain, looking at the model consensus, in terms of overall amounts, especially given the variability currently in where that boundary sets up. If it lingers over the I-10/12 corridor, as model trends are indicating, it will pose more of a problem, given the urban vulnerabilities. If it sets up elsewhere in more rural areas, these places should be at less of a risk due to the higher flash flood guidance and absorption. This will be something to monitor as we go through the next couple of days and things develop a bit more. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the main impact being isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Once again, with coverage being generally low at any given time, do not have enough confidence in timing to include any TEMPO or prevailing group. However, have included PROB30 or VCTS groups at all terminals to cover the broader windows when impacts will be possible. Future updates may be able to add TEMPO groups for more specific impacts as confidence in timing and location increase. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Benign marine conditions will be in place through the forecast period. Southerly and moderate (10-15kts) winds are forecast through the next week. Scattered showers and storms are possible daily, which could be a hazard to mariners with the threat of lightning and gusty winds (30-40mph). MSW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 94 74 94 / 20 30 10 50 BTR 78 97 79 96 / 10 40 10 60 ASD 78 95 78 94 / 10 40 10 50 MSY 79 94 79 93 / 10 40 10 60 GPT 78 93 79 92 / 20 30 10 50 PQL 78 95 77 95 / 20 30 20 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...DM MARINE...MSW