967
FXUS64 KLIX 171917
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
217 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Tonight through Saturday morning... A shortwave
boundary is expected to move through the area and linger through the
weekend, enhancing rain chances for the area. Looking at models,
these storms will off and on Thursday through the weekend, but
especially will be firing up convection during the peak afternoon
heating hours. These storms will be highly efficient as PW value are
around 2.2-2.4 inches for the next few days, which is well above the
SPC sounding climatology. And with plenty of moisture to work with
throughout the atmospheric column and models indicating the
potential for training/slow-moving storms, flash flooding will be
the primary concern with these storms. Lightning and gusty winds (30-
50mph) will also be hazards and a severe storm will be possible
through the weekend. As a result of increase PoPs, the heat concerns
will decrease for a while. Highs through the weekend will be in the
upper 80s. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

As the boundary lifts over our area Sunday into Monday,
an easterly wave will influence the Gulf of Mexico, again enhancing
rain chances for our area for the beginning of next week. Once
again, rain will be quite efficient given the abundant tropical
moisture associated with the easterly wave moving into the area. PW
values look high and PoPs will be enhanced. As this rainfall will be
efficient and somewhat slow moving in recent model trends, we will
need to monitor for potential flash flooding concerns next week as
well. The enhanced rainfall next week will keep temperatures near
normal, so heat concerns will not be an issue for next week for the
most part. MSW
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail for all area airports and will
persist through the forecast period. TEMPO groups are forecast for
most area airports for lower ceilings and visibilities and MVFR
conditions for this afternoon and early evening. Wind gusts greater
than 30 degrees will be possible throughout the forecast period at
all area airports. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A benign weather pattern will be setting up over the area
for the next week. Southerly and moderate (10-15kts) will be in
place for the next week. Daily showers and storms will be possible
with lightning and brief, gusty winds (30-40mph), which could be a
hazard for mariners. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  91  71  85 /  30  90  70  90
BTR  78  93  76  90 /  40  90  60  90
ASD  77  93  75  88 /  30  90  70 100
MSY  78  91  78  88 /  60  90  60 100
GPT  77  91  76  88 /  30  80  80 100
PQL  77  93  76  91 /  30  80  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW