590
FXUS64 KLIX 220446
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

While most of the convection from the afternoon has dissipated, we
have seen a solitary thunderstorm redevelop near the Interstate
10/12 corridor in southern East Baton Rouge Parish over the last
hour. It`s tracking eastward and could reach the Hammond area
beyond 10 PM CDT if it doesn`t dissipate. Will likely issue a ZFP
update in the next hour to remove evening wording. No significant
change to forecast thinking beyond midnight, as we continue to see
the same scenarios repeat daily/nightly. Not really seeing an
obvious end to the current cycle at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Plenty of showers and thunderstorms are in the area today as PW
values north of 2 inches holds over the area. Although most of
the south shore and coast are fairly worked over, we still see a
fair amount in a few spots. Meanwhile, further north, more storms
are starting to break through as we get to peak heating of the
day. With plenty of CAPE to go around, a few of these storms could
be strong and can`t 100% rule out a rogue severe storm. However
poor wind shear means they aren`t moving very much which adds to
the flash flooding threat. These storms are incredibly efficient
rainmakers and due to repeated rounds of rain both today and in
previous days, soils won`t be able to hold as much as they have
been while we were drier. There`s also plenty of boundaries either
from lake/sea breeze or outflow boundaries from decaying storms
for new ones to pop up on. So all in all there will be high PoPs
for this afternoon.

For tomorrow, a shortwave will dig down into the area in the late
hours so we may have more nocturnal showers and storms through the
evening/overnight hours but otherwise it`ll be a similar tune to
how today is playing out. -BL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Diurnally driven pattern continues for the foreseeable future.
Still. Onshore flow continues to bring in moist air from the Gulf
and we have plenty of daily seabreezes and shortwaves to help kick
storms off. Flash flooding continues to be a concern since
antecedent conditions will continue to be wet and reduce how much
the soils can store leading to faster runoff. It`ll still be a
very hit and miss situation depending on where storms exactly end
up, so it should remain relatively isolated.

Very late into the period (right at Saturday) high pressure begins
to build into the area again which may slightly tap down on the
rain chances we`ve been having so much of lately and bring
slightly higher temperatures. But the typical summer pattern will
continue with daily chances of convection in the afternoon. -BL

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Most terminals VFR late this evening, with the exception being
KMCB, which was reporting OVC004. Expect the low ceilings to hang
in there overnight. MVFR ceilings will become more common toward
sunrise Monday, especially at the terminals near the coast, as
SHRA/TSRA develop and move off of the coastal waters. Once again
on Monday (and probably every day this week), scattered SHRA/TSRA
will develop once convective temperatures in the mid and upper 80s
are reached. Focusing timing of direct impacts at a particular
terminal to a 2 or 3 hour window with any significant confidence
will likely not be favorable for several more hours yet. Main
direct impact will be IFR visibilities and occasional MVFR
ceilings. Wind gusts to 30 knots or so will be possible with the
stronger cells. Most convection should dissipate toward 00z
Tuesday with VFR conditions during the evening hours. Did lower
ceilings to MVFR/IFR at KMCB just before the end of the forecast
period, as that has occurred multiple evenings this week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Winds will generally be onshore flow at 10 knots or less for the
whole forecast period. In and near storms could see locally higher
waves/seas and winds. Storms are most likely in the morning hours
and could contain waterspouts in the stronger ones. This will
continue throughout the whole week basically. -BL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  87  71  86 /  40  80  50  90
BTR  75  90  75  90 /  40  90  40  90
ASD  74  89  75  89 /  60  80  50  90
MSY  76  88  77  88 /  60  80  40  90
GPT  75  88  76  89 /  50  90  50  90
PQL  75  91  75  92 /  60  80  50  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...BL