717
FXUS64 KLIX 160818
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
318 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Another hot day expected across the region as upper level
heights/thicknesses remain elevated with the close proximity to
the mid level ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and southwest
Atlantic. Like days past, late afternoon or early evening
convection will again be possible, however, similar to yesterday,
CAMs and globals suggest coverage will be extremely limited.
Consensus blends are still very bullish with POPs so decided the
best course of action would be to cut those in half based on both
globals QPF and stat guidances. With plenty of low level moisture
and temperatures soaring into the mid 90s for most of the region,
kept the heat advisory unchanged meaning most outside of coastal
Louisiana are under the heat headline today.

Tonight convection will again decrease across the landbased zones.
Going into Wednesday the upper level pattern begins to change. An
upper level weakness begins to shift south toward our region from
the mid MS River Valley. This transitions our upper level flow to
a more southwesterly direction. Still expecting hot conditions
again being on the northwest periphery of the upper ridge. At the
surface, return flow will continue to pump plenty of low level
moisture into the region. This will result in heat index values
likely reaching heat advisory criteria across most of the region
on Wednesday as well. A bit better rain chance on Wednesday during
the afternoon and evening, but largely the highest POPs will be
found just beyond the scope of the short term period. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The long term period can simply be characterized by a wetter and
cooler pattern. A mid level weakness will remain in place allowing
for an active southwesterly flow to set up over the region
through the entire long term period. A surface front will move
southward as the weakness positions over the region...eventually
stalling along the Gulf Coast. This feature will provide support
for enhancing coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms each
day. With weak steering and ample moisture (Pwats generally around
2.0" give or take) hydro concerns may evolve, especially over
poor drainage and urbanized locations that receive multiple storms
(training/back-building convection). Exact totals will vary
widely given the nature of T`storms, but coverage will be that it
can be inferred that most locations can expect and inch or two at
least from Day 3 through Day 7. As for a severe component,
synoptics are not indicating much outside typical pulse type
strong wind gust potential. With the enhanced coverage of storms
and earlier initiation, temperatures will be held down just a
bit...closer to average or maybe a degree or two below. That would
mean a less likelihood for heat headlines, especially closer to
the weekend. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the main
impact being isolated to scattered diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. Once again, with coverage being generally low at
any given time, do not have enough confidence in timing to include
any TEMPO or prevailing group. However, have included PROB30 or
VCTS groups at all terminals to cover the broader windows when
impacts will be possible. Future updates may be able to add TEMPO
groups for more specific impacts as confidence in timing and
location increase. (DM)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Mainly benign marine conditions through this forecast period.
Generally, a southerly or onshore flow is anticipated through the
workweek and into the upcoming weekend with winds generally
around or less than 10kts. That said, diurnally driven convection
will be possible during the late night hours through the morning.
Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in the strongest
convection. With the generally light low level flow and likelihood
of outflow boundaries from previous convection the evening
before, waterspouts will also remain a threat. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  94  74 /  30  30  60  20
BTR  97  78  96  78 /  40  20  70  10
ASD  95  78  94  78 /  40  20  70  20
MSY  94  79  93  79 /  40  20  70  20
GPT  93  78  92  79 /  30  20  60  30
PQL  95  78  95  77 /  30  20  60  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...RDF