322
FXUS64 KLIX 110319 AAB
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1019 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...NEW UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

With the loss of daytime heating, convection has decreased across
the region this evening. A frontal boundary still remains draped
across the Florida Parishes, which can be easily distinguished by
the range in surface dewpoints with locations south of the front
in the mid and upper 70s and north of the boundary closer to 70F.
Convection will fire again early Thursday morning, especially
over the marine zones and immediate adjacent landbased zones such
as Grand Isle and lower Plaquemines. Eventually through the day
rain chances creep up again with the diurnal cycle favoring land
with strong surface heating. Lake/sea breeze along with the
residual weak boundary will likely generate additional showers and
storms during the afternoon. Basically, your typical summertime
regime. Temperatures tomorrow with slightly higher rain chances
will likely be kept down especially across the southshore with
upper 80s to perhaps a lower 90s thrown into the mix here or
there. By in large the warmer areas will be further inland where
rain chances are lowest. (Frye)

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Shear axis remains in place across the area, but quite a
significant gradient in moisture from south to north. As an
example, the precipitable water value on our sounding this morning
was 2.2 inches, but the JAN sounding was at 1.3 inches. While the
McComb area probably isn`t real close to that 1.3 reading, they
are seeing dew points in the upper 60s, which is 5-10 degrees
lower than most of the area. Areal coverage of precipitation has
diminished considerably over the last hour or two, with most
remaining precipitation near the Interstate 10 corridor. Areas
that haven`t seen precipitation today have generally warmed into
the upper 80s to mid 90s, but rainy areas have been in the lower
and middle 80s.

Most remaining land based convection should dissipate toward
sunset. The usual late night convective development over marine
areas is expected again early Thursday morning, drifting into the
coastal parishes around sunrise. Areal coverage of land based
convection on Thursday likely to be a bit less than today as
precipitable water values will be closer to 2 inches than 2.2
inches. Trimmed the hourly NBM PoPs a bit tomorrow to be a bit
closer to the globals and the representation we see on most of the
CAMs. Again, most convection should dissipate around sunset
tomorrow.

Will stick with NBM deterministic temperatures through the period,
realizing that convection will bust temperatures in a few
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Weak upper ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually
strengthen a bit going into the weekend. Unfortunately, moisture
levels won`t change significantly, with precipitable water values
generally remaining around 2 inches for much of the period. This
is likely to produce isolated to scattered diurnally forced
convection each day. A very weak shortwave could bring a little
relief to perhaps the northeast part of the area by Tuesday, but
that`s not a high confidence solution. NBM deterministic numbers
look very reasonable, especially for areas that don`t see
convection by mid-afternoon on a particular day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions through much of the cycle. MCB may have some
CIG/VIS reductions early morning...kept the TEMPOs
ongoing/unchanged for this package. Otherwise, for afternoon
convection used PROBs at most sites except MCB where VCs were
used. Otherwise, winds look to remain light and variable through
the cycle. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Main marine concern will be thunderstorms and related impacts.
Most marine thunderstorms will occur during the overnight and
morning hours, with strong winds and locally higher seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  92  72  93 /  10  30  20  40
BTR  76  95  77  95 /  10  50  30  60
ASD  75  92  76  94 /  20  60  20  60
MSY  78  90  78  93 /  20  70  30  70
GPT  76  91  76  93 /  20  50  20  50
PQL  75  94  75  96 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW