Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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422 FXUS64 KLIX 110427 AAC AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1016 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 With the loss of daytime heating, convection has decreased across the region this evening. A frontal boundary still remains draped across the Florida Parishes, which can be easily distinguished by the range in surface dewpoints with locations south of the front in the mid and upper 70s and north of the boundary closer to 70F. Convection will fire again early Thursday morning, especially over the marine zones and immediate adjacent landbased zones such as Grand Isle and lower Plaquemines. Eventually through the day rain chances creep up again with the diurnal cycle favoring land with strong surface heating. Lake/sea breeze along with the residual weak boundary will likely generate additional showers and storms during the afternoon. Basically, your typical summertime regime. Temperatures tomorrow with slightly higher rain chances will likely be kept down especially across the southshore with upper 80s to perhaps a lower 90s thrown into the mix here or there. By in large the warmer areas will be further inland where rain chances are lowest. (Frye) && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Shear axis remains in place across the area, but quite a significant gradient in moisture from south to north. As an example, the precipitable water value on our sounding this morning was 2.2 inches, but the JAN sounding was at 1.3 inches. While the McComb area probably isn`t real close to that 1.3 reading, they are seeing dew points in the upper 60s, which is 5-10 degrees lower than most of the area. Areal coverage of precipitation has diminished considerably over the last hour or two, with most remaining precipitation near the Interstate 10 corridor. Areas that haven`t seen precipitation today have generally warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s, but rainy areas have been in the lower and middle 80s. Most remaining land based convection should dissipate toward sunset. The usual late night convective development over marine areas is expected again early Thursday morning, drifting into the coastal parishes around sunrise. Areal coverage of land based convection on Thursday likely to be a bit less than today as precipitable water values will be closer to 2 inches than 2.2 inches. Trimmed the hourly NBM PoPs a bit tomorrow to be a bit closer to the globals and the representation we see on most of the CAMs. Again, most convection should dissipate around sunset tomorrow. Will stick with NBM deterministic temperatures through the period, realizing that convection will bust temperatures in a few locations. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Weak upper ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually strengthen a bit going into the weekend. Unfortunately, moisture levels won`t change significantly, with precipitable water values generally remaining around 2 inches for much of the period. This is likely to produce isolated to scattered diurnally forced convection each day. A very weak shortwave could bring a little relief to perhaps the northeast part of the area by Tuesday, but that`s not a high confidence solution. NBM deterministic numbers look very reasonable, especially for areas that don`t see convection by mid-afternoon on a particular day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 VFR conditions through much of the cycle. MCB may have some CIG/VIS reductions closer to sunrise...kept the TEMPOs ongoing/unchanged. Otherwise, for afternoon convection used PROBs at most sites except MCB where VCs were used. Expect brief MVFR reductions with TSRA. Otherwise, winds look to remain light and variable through the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Main marine concern will be thunderstorms and related impacts. Most marine thunderstorms will occur during the overnight and morning hours, with strong winds and locally higher seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 71 90 72 / 10 0 40 10 BTR 95 76 93 77 / 40 10 50 30 ASD 91 75 90 76 / 50 10 50 20 MSY 90 78 90 78 / 70 20 60 30 GPT 89 76 90 76 / 60 20 50 20 PQL 92 75 93 75 / 70 10 40 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...RDF SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RW