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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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101 FXUS64 KLIX 171111 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 611 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Today will be a transition day into a more rainy period that should last into the start of the new workweek. Convective coverage is expected to increase today, however, with a bit later initialization, heat index values will again reach Advisory thresholds. Some heat relief will be possible late in the afternoon as showers and storm develop...although some showers or thunderstorms may contain heavy rainfall. PWAT values of 2.0 give or take will allow for very efficent rainfall rates, which over flood prone areas could cause some minor flooding. Convection should begin to decrease around sunset, however, kept at least some lower-end POPs overnight even over the less favor landbased zones, especially since a surface frontal boundary will be moving southward toward our region. By Thursday the front stalls over our area and during peak heating will help enhance coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity. A pulse strong to severe storm will be possible with gusty winds and small hail possible in the stronger/wider updrafts. This will likely be a secondary threat just behind possible hydro concerns. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Active southwesterly mid/upper flow will remain in place through the long term period after becoming established during the short term period. At the surface a frontal boundary will remain stalled over the region through much of the medium range. Weak onshore flow will persist through the long term period as well, which will continue to draw deeper moisture northward into our area. With the front enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity during the peak heating hours, isolated to scattered showers and storms will also remain possible outside of diurnal max. Similar to the short term period, PWAT values of 2.0"+ will allow for very efficient rainfall rates. As been advertised, weak steering could lead to multiple storms over the same areas in a short amount of time leading to possible flash flooding concerns. WPC has outlined the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall late week and into the weekend. Furthermore, some stronger updrafts again could contain small hail and gusty winds as well so a strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled out, but this would likely be the exception rather than the rule. The surface boundary will begin to lift northward early next week. At the same time, an easterly wave will move into the Gulf of Mexico allowing for deeper tropical moisture to spill into the region from the southeast...again enhancing rain/storm potential. This timeframe has rather high POPs than usual for the medium range, but confidence in continued at least diurnally driven showers and storms is high as the wet regime remains in place across the forecast area. With the uptick in clouds and rain, temperatures will be at or just below average for this time of year with most places struggling to reach 90F. So at this juncture, the need for heat headlines will be unlikely beyond Thursday. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions expected outside of convection. Speaking of, the best timing looks to be mid to late afternoon or early evening. Continued TEMPOs for this time with VCs either side. Outside of this afternoon, a few scattered showers have developed this morning and may continue to do so...so used VCs respectively. Highest chances this AM will be closer to the coast. Otherwise, should dry out overnight before rain chances increase on Thursdays. Winds should continue to be light and variable, however, some higher winds/gusts are likely in and around convection. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Generally favorable marine conditions through this forecast period. A southerly or onshore flow is anticipated through the remainder of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend with winds generally around or less than 10kts. That said, diurnally driven convection will be possible during the late night hours through the morning. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in the strongest activity. With the generally light low level flow and likelihood of outflow boundaries from previous convection the evening before, waterspouts will also remain a threat. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 94 73 90 72 / 60 30 100 60 BTR 96 78 95 76 / 70 30 90 60 ASD 94 77 93 75 / 70 30 100 70 MSY 93 79 92 77 / 80 30 100 60 GPT 92 78 92 76 / 60 30 90 70 PQL 95 77 94 75 / 50 30 90 80 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF