903
FXUS64 KLIX 120444
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1144 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Upper ridging near Las Vegas, with a weaker ridge over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Troughing near Lake Michigan extended
into Arkansas and east Texas. At the surface, the pressure pattern
locally was rather weak with potentially a weak trough running
east west along the Interstate 10 corridor. Convection at mid
afternoon had become rather isolated, but was capable of producing
locally very heavy rainfall. Temperatures away from the
convection were generally running from the upper 80s to middle
90s.

The upper pattern is not changing significantly over the next 36
hours, with ridging remaining over the northern and eastern
portions of the Gulf of Mexico. This morning`s soundings continued
to show rather moist air south of the weak boundary with
precipitable water values in the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range, but north
of the boundary, precipitable water values were in the 1.5 to 1.7
range. Forecast soundings indicate that southwest Mississippi,
including the McComb area, would be in the drier air, which
explains the lack of convection there as compared to the remainder
of the area. Model solutions indicate the troughing should
continue to weaken, and the moisture levels over southwest
Mississippi will become similar to the remainder of the area by
midday Friday. So we will be looking at more of the same diurnally
forced convection on Friday, starting near the coast in the
morning and spreading inland by afternoon, and mostly dissipating
by sunset.

Little change in temperatures is anticipated on Friday, with NBM
deterministic numbers looking to be rather reasonable...if
convection doesn`t develop early near a particular location. Heat
index values for Friday are fairly close to Heat Advisory criteria
(108F) along the Interstate 10/12 corridor, but with the potential
for convection and the limited areal extent of heat indices
meeting criteria, will hold off on an advisory for now.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

No large changes in the upper pattern over the next few days, but
precipitable water values drop off slightly as we get into the
weekend and early next week. Upper ridge does gradually get
suppressed a bit into the Gulf with weak troughing extending
east-west somewhere in the Interstate 10 or 20 corridors. The
airmass never really dries out completely (generally near 1.9
inches), so we can`t point out a completely dry day pretty much
anywhere in the CWA. Scattered storms are likely to be mainly
confined to the afternoon and early evening hours over land, and
late night through mid morning over marine areas.

With the slightly lower areal coverage of convection expected in
the long term period, high temperatures will likely run a degree
or two warmer. That is likely to be just enough to bump a
significant portion of the area into Heat Advisory criteria as
early as Saturday and likely continuing into at least early next
week, and potentially beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions anticipated outside of convection during the
afternoon again this afternoon. Convection appears scattered, but
coverage may be slightly higher than Thursday so PROBs will likely
be adjusted to TEMPOs in subsequent forecasts. Otherwise, winds will
remain light and variable with a bit higher winds possible in and
around convection. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Marine interests will mainly be concerned with thunderstorms, as
winds and wave conditions should be fairly benign outside of
thunderstorms. Most of the convection should be during the
overnight and early morning hours, and will produce locally gusty
winds and higher seas. As we saw this morning, with the light wind
fields, waterspouts can be expected near and after sunrise in some
of the nearshore waters, including the tidal lakes and sounds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  90  72  94 /  20  40  10  50
BTR  76  91  77  96 /  20  60  10  50
ASD  75  92  77  94 /  20  60  10  50
MSY  77  90  79  93 /  20  60  10  60
GPT  76  91  77  93 /  10  40  10  40
PQL  75  94  76  96 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW