016
FXUS64 KLIX 121748
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1248 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Latest upper level analysis shows the typical Desert Southwest
and Bermuda ridge extending to the East Coast. A shallow trough is
in place between those to highs extending from the Great Lakes to
around the Missouri/Arkansas border. This pattern is relatively
typical for summer with diurnally driven convection expected. With
such little change in the synoptic pattern from yesterday to
today, not much a reason think storms would develop in much
different areas. Thus, decided to deviate from deterministic NBM
and roughly mirror the radar QPF for today`s areas of highest POP.

Models show upper level ridge building across the northern Gulf
Coast this weekend as the trough lifts northward and shifts east.
This will allow for both slightly warmer temps and higher
dewpoints to develop over the CWA. Although not big change from
today, will all that`s needed to drive heat indicies into advisory
levels for much of the CWA Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The remainder of the forecast period, which runs through Thursday,
heat will be the biggest impact. As upper ridge remains aloft each
day, mid to upper 90s can be expected for high temps. Made no
chances there, but did bump up low temps for the New Orleans metro,
Northshore of the Lake, and the Mississippi Coast. Its here that the
NBM has been 1 to 3 degrees too cool in recent warm spells. That
puts lows at to just above 80 degrees. That`s not much nighttime
relief from heat. Then, each day next week, chances are looking
pretty good for continued need for Heat Advisory. Could see 5 to 6
consecutive days of a heat advisory in effect, with the potential
for a small portion of the forecast area to need an Excessive Heat
Warning early/mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areal coverage of TSRA to this point of the day has been fairly
isolated, but has impacted several terminals already. Can`t
eliminate the possibility at any terminal this afternoon. Direct
impacts will be IFR or lower visibilities, MVFR ceilings and wind
gusts to 30 knots possible. Will handle with VCTS and/or TEMPO as
necessary. Should see convection dissipate around 00z for most or
all terminals. Forecast soundings indicate precipitable water
values should be quite a bit lower tomorrow (1.8 inches vs 2.1
today). Will not carry any mention of TSRA for tomorrow in
terminals at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 446 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The area will remain under surface ridge for the most part,
although the center will not always be aloft during the forecast
period. That means winds and seas wont` be much impact outside of
convection, with seas 2 feet or less throughout the period.
Otherwise, typical summertime nocturnal to early morning showers and
storms expected with brief gusty winds and waterspouts the main
threats.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  73  93  74 /  40  20  60  10
BTR  93  77  96  78 /  60  40  60  10
ASD  93  78  95  79 /  60  20  60  10
MSY  92  80  94  81 /  70  40  70  10
GPT  93  79  93  80 /  50  20  50  10
PQL  96  76  97  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME