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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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723 FXUS64 KLIX 130455 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1155 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Upper ridging was centered over Utah this afternoon, with a weaker ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In between, a trough extended from Lake Huron southwestward to Missouri and then into west Texas. Areal coverage of showers/thunderstorms has diminished considerably over the last couple hours, with nothing more than isolated storms at this writing, and most of that north of Interstate 10. With the exception of areas that have seen precipitation in the last hour or two, temperatures were in the upper 80s and lower 90s at 2 PM CDT. While upper air soundings at 12z and water vapor imagery indicated abundant moisture in place this morning, it`s apparent that some drying has occurred this afternoon. Precipitable water values that were in the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range this morning are likely closer to 1.9 in much of the area now, and those values are likely to remain, or fall a little more to 1.7 or 1.8 inches across much of the area tomorrow. This should mean less areal coverage of storms tomorrow. Have undercut NBM PoPs by 10-15 percent for tomorrow, but GFS/ECMWF MOS numbers near 20 percent would indicate we`re still overstating the threat. There`s enough support from Convection Allowing Models to not discount the NBM numbers entirely. Most of the morning hours should remain dry, with any significant thunderstorm threat being during the mid to late afternoon hours. With less areal coverage of storms expected tomorrow, that`s going to allow temperatures to heat up several degrees as compared to today. Highs in the middle 90s for much of the area, combined with dew points in the mid 70s will produce heat index values in the 107 to 112F range for a significant portion of the area Saturday afternoon. We`ve issued a Heat Advisory for Saturday afternoon for the area, with the exception of the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 As the Utah ridge tries to spread eastward on Sunday, the troughing to the east of it attempts to suppress the Gulf ridge southward. Moisture levels on forecast soundings rebound to closer to 2 inches on Sunday, which will mean a little better chance for thunderstorms. Current indications are that we will probably still need a Heat Advisory across most of the area on Sunday, but we`ll hold off to see if the current expectations on precipitation continue. Weak troughing is expected to remain across the Lower Mississippi River Valley for much of next week. Precipitable water values will be high enough (1.9-2.0 inches) to not preclude convection during any afternoon next week. We`ll also be borderline for Heat Advisories on most days next week, considering that conditions could reach criteria prior to convective initiation each afternoon. No significant adjustments made to NBM deterministic numbers. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Expecting VFR conditions early this morning, but will likely see another round of isolated coastal showers between 10-14Z. Did mention VCSH for KNEW briefly but will dissipate before more scattered TSRA develops between 18-00Z SAT. Best period for coverage will be around mid to late afternoon, bringing periodic reduced VIS/CIGs dropping flight categories at times, but will remain largely VFR outside of any TSRA activity. Calm/quiet going beyond 01-02Z with a few lingering storms dissipating with time KLG && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Main marine concerns will be convectively related, as general pressure pattern produces winds generally below 10 knots and seas 2 feet or less. Thunderstorm development generally late night through mid morning can produce locally gusty winds and higher seas. Several waterspouts have developed each of the last several mornings, and anticipate the next few mornings won`t be any different. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 94 74 93 / 20 50 20 60 BTR 77 96 78 96 / 20 50 20 60 ASD 76 95 77 95 / 10 40 20 50 MSY 78 94 79 94 / 10 40 20 60 GPT 77 93 78 94 / 20 40 20 40 PQL 76 96 76 97 / 10 30 20 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...KLG MARINE...RW