335
FXUS64 KLCH 171712
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1212 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

A ridge of high pressure remains centered roughly over NW Texas
this morning and is extending into the northwest gulf region. An
upper low is traversing the upper midwest with the associated
trough beginning to dig into the east coast. At the surface, weak
ridging is across the northern gulf coast extending from the
southeast states. A cold front is pushing south across the upper
Mississippi Valley.

Today the upper ridge will remain the main player in the area`s
weather. This will produce another hot and humid day with a heat
adv for the region yet again. Weak ridging will provide light
winds with not much relief from the heat. Since the area area is
on the eastern edge with a bit of an upper weakness from the
incoming upper trough from the mid west, a few showers and storms
will be possible once again. Diurnal convection is expected to
remain low end scattered at best.

Sunday the ridge is expected to nudge more into the area. This
may produce the hottest day of the year so far with widespread low
100s possible for Cen LA and the lakes region. Heat index values
may push above 110 for most locations during the afternoon.
Convection is anticipated to be near non existent.

Sunday night into Monday the ridge will begin to retrograde west
as the upper trough digs into the east coast. This will also allow
the aforementioned cold front to drop south as well. Guidance
indicates an MCS may develop Sunday afternoon across Arkansas or
Mississippi and drop south. This area of convection may limp into
Cen LA after sunset or during the early morning hours of Monday
before dissipating.

The weak cold front is expected to gradually push south/southwest
across the area Monday. A few showers and storms my be possible as
this occurs. Monday will still be toasty with a portion of the
area experiencing apparent temperatures back into the 105 to 110
range before the drier air arrives in the extended.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Frontal boundary that pushed through the area on MON will reside
near the coast or just offshore early TUE, then become quasi-
stationary over the northern Gulf through the remainder of the
period. Drier air intruding into parts of east and south central LA
will offer some initial relief in terms of morning lows closer to
seasonal normals (lower/mid 70s) and lower afternoon RH, with this
airmass continuing to gradually filter west TUE night into WED.
While not providing much relief in terms of high temperatures, which
are still expected to climb into the mid 90s through the week, this
will result in lower dewpoints/humidity and relatively cooler
overnight lows. In terms of precipitation chances, saw little reason
again to deviate much from the low-mid range NBM chances near the
coast associated with the daily sea breeze and over the Gulf near
the frontal boundary, but will have to keep an eye on perturbations
rounding the ridge in the northerly flow regime, especially while
MSTR still lingers across SE TX TUE into WED.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Mainly VFR conditions with light and variable winds. During the
afternoon popup showers and thunderstorms will occur where
conditions could drop to MVFR/IFR. The storms will be short-lived
with any impacts lasting around an hour.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

A weak surface high will be found across the northern Gulf of
Mexico through the weekend. This will allow mainly light onshore
flow and low seas to continue. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will also continue through the weekend with the best chance at
night and early morning for the offshore waters, and during the
afternoon into early evening for the near shore waters as well as
the coastal lakes and bays.

By early to mid next week, a weak surface frontal boundary will
try to slip down into the coastal waters. If this occurs, during
the Tuesday and Wednesday time period, a light and more offshore
flow will develop over the coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77 101  77  96 /  10   0  10  30
LCH  80  97  79  97 /  10  10  10  30
LFT  80  99  82  98 /  10  10  10  40
BPT  78  98  79  99 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...14