Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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855 FXUS64 KLCH 140305 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1005 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Isolated to widely scattered afternoon convection has dissipated, and quiet albeit warm and muggy conditions are expected overnight. Another hot day will be on tap for Wednesday, with heat index values of 108 to 113 degrees common across the area. Made some small adjustment to Td values for Wednesday afternoon, in the typical more humid areas near the Atchafalaya Basin and Vermilion Bay where guidance tends to run a degree or two too high. This keeps apparent temperatures well above advisory criteria, and a few spots could hit Excessive Heat Warning criteria of greater than 113 degrees briefly. This, however, does not warrant issuance of a warning as these higher readings will be short-lived and isolated. Updated text products to reflect these changes as well as to remove today`s Heat Advisory headline. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge over the Eastern U.S. and Gulf, keeping light south to southwest winds across the region. Temperatures range from the lower to mid 90s, expecting mid to upper 90s before the afternoon is over. Dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 70s, with maximum heat index values 108 to 113 expected this afternoon. Heat Advisory continues through 8 PM. Radar showing earlier scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal parishes/counties and adjacent coastal waters have diminished greatly. Latest HRRR guidance shows coverage as well. Thus, lowered PoPs for this afternoon by about 10% into the 20-40% range. For tonight, mostly clear skies and warm. Low temperatures in the mid to upper mid 70s north of I-10, near 80/lower 80s I-10 south. For Wednesday through Thursday night, the mid to upper level ridge will continue to be centered right over Louisiana and Texas, continuing the above normal temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s along and south of the I-10 corridor, upper 90s to near 100 further north. Maximum heat index values 108 to 113 expected, possibly higher in some locations. All areas, as well as our neighboring offices, have issued a Heat Advisory from late Wednesday morning through the early evening hours. Wednesday morning low temperatures in the mid to upper mid 70s north of I-10, near 80/lower 80s I-10 south. Later Thursday morning into the afternoon hours, preliminary forecast numbers will be very similar to Wednesday, and chances for another Heat Advisory across the entire area remain high. With the influence of the upper level ridge and the limited mid level moisture, only isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor southward can be expected, with even less chances further north. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Ridging aloft will remain anchored from the southern Rockies to the southern Plains throughout the long term period, with the CWA remaining generally on the southeastern edge of the ridge. With little day to day changes in the synoptic pattern expected through the weekend into early next week, a rather repetitive hot and dry forecast will persist. Temperature wise, we will continue to see highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees, while overnight lows will generally fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. In addition, heat indices will likely continue to flirt with or exceed heat advisory criteria each day, especially along the I-49 corridor and across lower Acadiana. Otherwise, minimal rain chances are expected to continue, with NBM painting POPs around 15-40% each afternoon. With the influence of the ridge being weaker on our eastern edge, lower Acadiana will likely see the best rain chances each afternoon. Any showers that do form will be solely driven by the seabreeze and daytime heating, and will have to overcome the cap in place aloft, which should keep coverage isolated to widely scattered at best. 17 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Generally VFR conditions and only isolated thunderstorms are ongoing at this hour. Convection is already showing sign of winding down and should be over by 01Z. Low clouds will clear out and only light cirrus aloft will prevail overnight. This little cloud cover should stop most fog from developing. Expect similar conditions tomorrow after 15Z with the diurnal cycle bringing about more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Convection will be isolated to scattered in nature with local impacts of gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Light south to southwest winds and low seas expected to continue through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected through much of the week as well, with the best rain chances through the morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 99 76 99 / 10 10 0 10 LCH 79 94 78 95 / 10 20 0 20 LFT 79 98 79 98 / 10 20 0 20 BPT 78 94 78 95 / 10 10 0 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ027>033- 044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...11